During the on-going presidential debates in the United States, there could be a sudden surprise from the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sending a strong message to the two candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. And this October surprise could come in the form of the seventh nuclear test, a message for the US as well as to the world that Kim would not welcome any interference in the way he runs his country. Regime survival remains at the core of all what Kim has been doing since he assumed power after his father’s death. He would be unwilling to make any concession that makes him feel threatened or vulnerable.

The country has survived all these years despite multiple sanctions by the United Nations and other countries. The world might view Kim Jong-un as a ruthless narcissist and a natural-born dictator but he would be unwilling to mortgage his country’s sovereignty for any offer of a carrot. Donald Trump tried twice during his presidency but both times returned empty-handed as Kim was firm on his conditions that all sanctions must be lifted before any talk of de-nuclearisation proceeds. Should Trump make a second successful bid to the presidency, he must not expect any departure from Kim’s position.

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So, the limbo shall continue and the world must learn to live with the manner Kim wants to run his country. Therefore whoever occupies the White House after Joe Biden vacates should be prepared for an October surprise from Kim Jong-un. For now, North Korea is not an election issue in the US. What has hogged the news cycle in the election season are developments in the Middle East where war is unsettling the world. Though Kim Jong-un is in no way involved in the Middle East, he remains one of the biggest threats to the US. He feels that a reminder to the new leadership in the US would be in order.

To demonstrate his power, Kim decided to release the first ever photographs of him walking past rows and rows of spinning centrifuges that enrich the uranium which goes into North Korea’s nuclear warheads. According to South Korean estimates, Kim has successfully been defying the UN sanctions resolutions and expanded his arsenal to about 80 or 90 nukes and keeps adding to it as fast as he can. If Kim keeps his October surprise by conducting another nuclear test to unsettle the new US leadership, that would be North Korea’s seventh since 2006, and the first since 2017 when Pyongyang detonated a warhead yielding roughly ten times the payload of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945 that brought World War II to a close.

Since Kim is uncomfortable with the US-Japan alliance relationship and naval exercises, which he considers a rehearsal for invasion, he might fire more missiles over Japan and into the Pacific, or even into the waters close to Guam or other American territories, which he can now reach. Kim has also acquired new submarines that could nuke South Korea, Japan or the US. By this and by building space satellites with the help of his new buddy, Russian President Vladimir Putin, he can project power to intimidate any potential or perceived adversary.

Kim’s rubber-stamp parliament has already scheduled a session on 7 October during which his provocation could come by way of a declaration to annul the armistice that ended the Korean War by declaring North Korea as a separate nation within its present boundaries, thereby sealing any possibility for unification talks ever again with South Korea. Since it was not a peace treaty but an armistice that ended the three-year prolonged Korean War (1950-53), the two parts of Korea continue to remain technically at war. Not being satisfied with such a declaration, Kim could go further by including in such a declaration a virtual ultimatum for South Korea to hand over five islands in the Yellow Sea near the ambiguous and disputed maritime demarcation drawn by the UN in 1953. In the event Kim readies with such a plan, the US and South Korea would most likely ignore such a challenge. It would remain unclear how and what Kim’s next step would be when a new US leadership assumes power as Biden’s stance would have become irrelevant.

The assumption in the North Korean leadership dating back to Kim’s grandfather Kim-Il Sung has been that the US does not rejoice in North Korea’s existence and is committed to adopt any means to wipe out the Kim regime. The mistrust is so deep that Kim Jong-un, who was ready for a bromance with Trump, not once but twice, first in a summit meeting in Singapore and a second time in Hanoi, soon realised that the US would not agree to any concession and he thus decided not to bend. The temporary thaw in conducting missile tests and exchange of love letters proved to be a will-o-the-wisp for a tangible positive outcome. When Trump walked away from a deal in his summit meeting in 2019, Kim felt humiliated. This provoked Kim so much that he resumed launching missiles and threatening South Korea, and broke off all negotiations with the US, even after Biden replaced Trump.

Should Trump return to power by defeating Harris, Kim is likely to harden his position further, thereby closing any room for future negotiations. Kim would also be emboldened with his new alliance with Russia after Putin’s visit to North Korea. Putin’s visit has turned into a mutually beneficial relationship with Kim sending ammunition and missiles to Russia for its war against Ukraine in return for Moscow giving Pyongyang the kit and know-how to arm against the West. Russia also vetoes at the UN Security Council any sanction resolutions to enforce controls on Kim’s nuclear programme. China has always been the principal benefactor and North Korea shares a lips-and-teeth kind of relationship. Now with Russia in the fold, a possible Russia-China-North Korea axis would be a formidable challenge for the new US leadership.

(The writer is former Senior Fellow at Pradhanmantri Memorial Museum and Library and MP-IDSA, New Delhi. He is also a former ICCR Chair Professor at Reitaku University, Japan)