In the aftermath of the lockdown of Kashmir from 5 August 2019, there had been no marked improvement in the security situation, despite New Delhi’s claims to the contrary. After Imran Khan raised the Kashmir issue in the UN General Assembly in September 2019, the bottled-up emotions of Kashmiris erupted, and protests broke out across Kashmir. Nor has there been any let up in violence. As a reporter from the India Today TV reported on 10 October last, internal documents of security forces contradict the claim that the situation was normal; and that since 5 August 2019, 10 militants were killed in encounters and there were over 300 stone-pelting cases in which close to 100 security personnel were injured.

According to data provided by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), in reply to an application for information made under the RTI Act, Jammu and Kashmir had the highest number of stonepelting incidents in 2019 ~ 1996 to be precise, during January- November 2019 ~ and in August there were 658 such incidents. Militants hit the streets despite tight security; and between 14 October and 10 November, at least four local militants who joined the LeT, were killed. What was more worrying, they were now targeting migrant labourers in a bid to cripple the economy; and in October 2019, at least seven migrant workers were killed, including five from West Bengal.

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During the first six months of 2020, at least 60 terrorists/militants have been killed, with 20 being killed in April alone. In July, several terrorists belonging to the JeM and LeT were killed. What is more, during June and July, an unending cycle of killing of grassroots political activists belonging to the BJP and other political parties has created a sense of fear, belying the claim that the situation in Kashmir was ‘under control’. In the current year, till 3 May, 35 local youth had joined various terrorist outfits. So, what improvements have taken place in the security situation in J&K?

Nor has there been any respite in cease-fire violations by Pakistan across the LoC. According to MHA data, 3,086 ceasefire violations took place in 2019, with the highest number recorded in October; and in 2020, there had been 1547 ceasefire violations till 3 May.

From the beginning of October 2019, attempts were made by the government to bring back a semblance of normality to the State, with the re-opening of schools and colleges, withdrawal of restrictions on movement of people and private vehicles, opening of markets and partial restoration of telephone connections. Peoples’ reaction was, however, lukewarm and their protests against New Delhi’s actions somewhat ‘morphed’ into a civil disobedience movement. In elections for posts of chairpersons of Block Development Councils held in October 2019, Independents won in 217 BDCs, compared to BJP candidates’ win in 81. In the Kashmir division, independents were elected in 109 Blocks and the BJP candidates were elected in 18. The election results are significant because except the BJP, none of the mainstream political parties ~ the NC, the PDP, the Congress or the CPI-M ~ had taken part.

The revocation of Article 370 does not seem to have made the people of Jammu and Kashmir happy ~ not even the Pandits who live in Kashmir ~ except for the Gujjars, some of the worst sufferers of the earlier regime, and the Ladakhis. Even in the new UT of Ladakh, Muslims in the Kargil Division are not happy. Ladakhis, while welcoming the creation of the new UT of Ladakh, feel apprehensive about the future. On the other hand, the people of Jammu, including BJP supporters, were sulking over the downgrading of the state, while the abolition of the ‘permanent resident’ status created a fear of outsiders flooding the region, competing for jobs and of a growing land mafia grabbing prized lands.

Therefore, a demand for a special domicile law has come up, with the J&K Panthers Party being most vocal about it. Some others want that the Himachal Pradesh model be invoked for job security and protecting local culture.

The revocation of Article 370 and the lockdown has hit the economy hard, especially tourism and the apple trade. The economy has suffered a loss of Rs 40,000 crore since the abrogation of Article 370. So far as rejuvenation is concerned, there has not been any rush of investors, nor is there likely to be as long as militancy persists. Moreover, the topography of the state is hardly conducive to the development of heavy industry.

The arrest/detention of mainstream political party leaders created a large political void which cannot be filled by the Panches and Sarpanches on whom the government had pinned its faith; rather it gave a field day to militants/extremists.

The decision-makers in New Delhi tried to showcase their ‘achievements’ by a guided tour of Jammu and Kashmir by European Members of Parliament ~ in their private capacity, as the EU Embassy in Delhi made clear ~ while denying Indian Members of Parliament the right to visit J&K.

National ‘integration’ is possible through emotional integration, not by suppression of dissent and denying people their legitimate rights. For a long-term settlement of the multi-dimensional Kashmir conflict what is required is restoration of normalcy and resumption of the political process through reduction in the trust-deficit, without which no significant economic development will be possible. Release of political leaders and dialogue with all stakeholders with the intention of ameliorating their genuine grievances are necessary steps towards that end. According to a senior official, of the more than 6600 people arrested/ detained after abrogation of Article 370, nearly 90 per cent have now been released, including the top leadership of the NC, Shah Faesal and the Peoples’ Conference chief, Sajad Lone, although former PDP Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti remains under detention. Whether they will be allowed to resume political activities remains to be seen.

Improvement in bilateral relations with Pakistan will also be necessary for the settlement of the Kashmir dispute, which may seem impossible given Pakistan’s hostile activities in the recent past. Perhaps the time is not ripe as yet. But the policy option should not be ruled out as Pakistanis have now realised that bellicosity towards India has not brought them much benefit, in terms of gaining international support. Even states that have supported India’s contention that revocation of Article 370 is a matter of India’s domestic policy have urged both India and Pakistan to settle their disputes through bilateral negotiations, as this will reduce regional tensions. (Concluded)

The writer is Professor (Retd.) of International Relations and Dean, Faculty of Arts, Jadavpur University.