An average tourist to Tokyo would find it difficult to believe the country’s population is shrinking after seeing the bustling crowds on the roads of Japan’s capital city. The tourist would not figure out that an increasing proportion of the country’s population is concentrated in the city and that Tokyo is not the mirror for the whole country. The government probably did not anticipate the public backlash that the gender-locking grant to women could give rise to, as it was perceived that offering money only to women was an indirect way of pushing women out of the capital.

The plan probably assumed that those women choosing to move to rural areas by availing a government incentive would be content with a rural life and stay away from pursuing educational and professional activities. The idea was that Tokyo’s women were needed to repopulate and help out the local economy that is heavily skewed towards male-dominated industries such as agriculture and manufacturing.

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This was absolutely a flawed decision that was bound to fail. Following backlash to this outlandish proposal that drew scorn on social media, Hanako Jimi, minister of state for regional revitalisation, ordered a review of the plan before finally scrapping it. Independent, motivated and educated women were aghast and laughed off the proposal. Some others questioned if women would be considered valuable only if they gave birth. Even an adviser to Prime Minister Kishida called out the plan, saying it did not address the root cause of the problem.

As less and less babies are born, day care centres are closing down, and the diaper industry is in demand more to cater to the greying seniors as their life span has increased. One can see tables for single persons in many restaurants, where one can see a Japanese salaried man or woman sitting alone after office hours and drinking beer because he/she does not know where to go except home to sleep, to repeat the same living style the following day. While driving in the countryside one evening with a Japanese professor, the author noticed the roads were empty, in stark contrast to what one sees in Tokyo. Upon inquiring, I was told that there are few children in the city and seniors are mostly indoors. That speaks of the grim position that Japan faces today.

The big question is why the fertility crisis has forced the authorities in Japan to go into the lonely hearts business? Despite all measures that the government has chosen, an educated and cultured single woman in a city such as Tokyo cannot be expected to find the sludge-filled fields of rural Japan the ideal locale for romance and marriage. She has all options available in Tokyo to enjoy life on her own terms while preferring to remain single. As said earlier, it is a personal choice to marry or not, or even to have kids if opting for marriage, and the government has absolutely no role in this.

An individual is concerned about his/her own life and choice of lifestyle and would not be expected to worry about the severe demographic problem that threatens to overwhelm one of the world’s largest economies. People are also aware that Japan is not the only country that is facing a demographic challenge. Other countries such as China, Taiwan and South Korea are also facing similar challenges. This is the consequence of modernisation, where a small family and better lifestyle is the norm. Even India that feels proud of enjoying the demographic advantages at present would face similar challenges in the future.

It is a fact that Japan has one of the world’s lowest fertility rates. The shortage of children and the rising life span of elderly have made the situation so severe that the government has created a cabinet position to deal with it. The movement of young people towards the cities for better education, work and lifestyle cannot be arrested. Despite this impending demographic time bomb confronting it, Japan continues to maintain a very restrictive immigration policy and is reluctant to welcome foreigners to contribute to the shrinking labour force. Japan maintains strict conditions for even overseas caregivers that it needs to help out the elderly in many old age homes.

The unstated reason ~ of maintaining racial purity ~ comes in the way of assimilating with foreigners. Since the 1970s, the percentage of single women in their late twenties has more than tripled. The number of pensioners is also expected to double by 2025. If more children are not born, the pension systems will collapse under the weight of the elderly. Additionally, care of the old, social security, insurance costs and population decline shall lead to lower productivity. Almost 60 per cent of single Japanese men and 80 per cent of women are still stuck in the family nest and unmarried into their early thirties and are contemptuously called parasite singles.

Parents turning matchmaker (kon-katsu) has not helped. According to estimates by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan’s population will decline by about 30 per cent to 87 million by 2070, with four out of every 10 people aged 65 or older. There are over 100,000 centenarians at present and the number is increasing. A study by a private-sector expert panel said in April 2024 that more than 40 per cent of Japanese municipalities are at risk of disappearing due to the expected drop in the number of women in their 20s and 30s. A Japanese professor told this author that Japan shall disappear in another 200-300 years. The scenario is grim and the government appears to have no solution.

The writer is former Senior Fellow at the Pradhanmantri Memorial Museum and Library, Ministry of Culture, New Delhi, and ICCR Chair Professor at Reitaku University, Japan