The tragic death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has thrust Iran into a period of intense political upheaval and uncertainty. This unexpected event has not only opened up a new presidential race but also exposed the underlying tensions and dynamics within the political system. The forthcoming election on June 28 now stands as a critical juncture for the country, both domestically and in terms of its international relations. Former Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani’s decision to enter the race is particularly noteworthy.

A prominent conservative figure and close adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mr Larijani’s candidacy signals a potential shift in the political landscape. His assurance of not being disqualified by the Guardian Council, which had barred him in the 2021 elections, suggests a strategic realignment within the upper echelons of Iran’s political hierarchy. Mr Larijani’s platform focuses on resolving economic hardships and addressing US sanctions, indicating a pragmatic approach to Iran’s pressing economic issues. His ability to navigate the complexities of both domestic politics and international diplomacy could make him a pivotal figure in the coming months.

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The competition from other hardliners, such as Mr Saeed Jalili and Mr Parviz Fattah, adds another layer of complexity to the race. Mr Jalili, with his experience as a chief nuclear negotiator and former head of Ayatollah Khamenei’s office, brings a wealth of experience and a staunchly hardline perspective. His re-entry into the presidential race underscores the ongoing influence of hardliners within Iran’s political framework. Similarly, Mr Fattah’s potential candidacy, backed by his connections to the Revolutionary Guards and his role in an investment fund linked to the Ayatollah, highlights the interplay between economic power and political influence in Iran. Interim President Mohammad Mokhber’s possible candidacy introduces another dimension to the election. As someone already in a position of temporary authority, his role and decisions in the lead-up to the election will be closely scrutinised. His actions could significantly influence the electoral landscape and voter perceptions. The broader context of this election cannot be ignored.

Iran is grappling with severe economic challenges, exacerbated by international sanctions and internal mismanagement. The discontent among the populace is palpable, with many Iranians frustrated by the lack of political and economic reforms. This discontent poses a risk of low voter turnout, which could undermine the legitimacy of the election process and the eventual winner’s mandate. Moreover, the Guardian Council’s role in vetting candidates has long been a contentious issue, with accusations of bias favoring hardline candidates. This election will be a litmus test for the Council’s impartiality and the broader political system’s ability to accommodate diverse political voices. The election in Iran is not just a routine political event but a critical moment that will shape the country’s future. The candidates’ ability to address economic issues, navigate international sanctions, and manage internal political dynamics will be crucial.