The 2024 Presidential Elections in the United States is 15 months away but the political atmosphere is already heating up. Both incumbent President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party and his Republican predecessor Donald Trump are in the race for the White House for a second time. While Biden is calm and composed, Trump is nervous, cranky, irritable and vociferous in his outbursts. Trump remains fixated on the 2020 election as a stolen one even after he has been indicted four times and twice in Georgia, first by a federal jury and next by the Fulton County jury under the RICO act (Racketeer Influenced Corrupt Organisations Act), applied hitherto to mobsters.

Yet Trump emerges as the front runner for his party’s nomination with 53 per cent Republican voters backing him and only 16 per cent supporting Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Surprisingly, Indian-American entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has secured 11 per cent support. On the flip side, President Biden, much liked by educated college youth, white collar workers, urban middle class and senior citizens, black or white, leads Trump by a slim margin of 4 per cent as different polls, including the noted New York Times Sienna poll, reveal. The

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Republican field is crowded with candidates. Among the eight, besides Trump and Desantis, there is Nikki Haley, of Indian American origin, a former South Carolina Governor and former Trump appointee as UN ambassador, former Vice fPresident Mike Pence, and two other Indian American candidates – business tycoon Vivek Ramaswamy and Harsh Vardhan Singh, a career man.

There are also Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey, and Scott Perry, a politician. All of them are to spar at the first TV debate organised by Fox News next week at Milwaukee, Wisconsin even as Trump has cancelled his appearance, soon after calling off a scheduled press conference. Trump as per polls conducted by various media houses including New York Times IPSO and NBC has emerged as the front runner for the Republican nomination showing that indictments by courts and juries have had little impact on his popularity. His supporters believe what he said during his latest arraignment in a federal court in New York: “I am being prosecuted because I am a political opponent to Joe Biden of the Democratic Party”. He has pleaded Not Guilty to most of the charges against him.

To defeat Trump in the Republican primary, rivals such as DeSantis and former VP Pence have to overcome the significant advantages he has with key pillar GOP voter groups, the latest NPR/PBS News hour Maris poll finds. Former President Barack Obama had also warned Biden of Trump’s political strengths in polarising voters and his pull with GOP elders. Trump is a “more formidable candidate” than many Democrats realize, Obama told Biden in a private meeting, warning him not to lower his guard. Obama had pledged to support Biden as early as June and has repeatedly asked him not to underestimate Trump.

Obama is to launch a fundraising campaign for Trump this fall. Republican primary voters say they believe the indictments and investigations Trump faces are politically motivated. And they would not consider any candidate other than Trump. Educated youth say they want neither Trump nor Biden to run for presidency as both are old – Biden will be 84 when he leaves office in 2028 and Trump 80.

Their cognitive functions are being questioned for the high office they will hold and the responsibilities that go with it. Trump does not need any donors e as he has a huge war chest of billions to finance his election. One is the MAGA fundraiser and the other is his website Truth Social on Twitter now X. Six out of 10 Republicans say they would rather back Trump than anyone else. About 77 per cent of Republican primary voters say the federal charges against Trump in the classified document case give them either minor concerns (14 per cent) or no real concerns at all (63 per cent).

Compare this with 55 per cent of all registered voters who say the charges give them either major concerns (47 per cent) or moderate concern (8 per cent). Trump has been charged by the DOJ and indicted by a Federal Jury for spiriting away sensitive files containing classified information on Iran and North Korea. Some 64 per cent of Republican primary voters believe that the multiple indictments and investigations Trump faces are politically motivated, although that is down slightly from the 68 per cent in April this year.

Trump is charged on four counts of felony by a Federal jury in DC of conspiring with 18 cohorts led by his lawyer Rudy Giuliani to try and subvert the electoral process by overthrowing the 2020 election verdict, ride roughshod over voters rights’ calling them stolen votes, 41 counts of felony by the Atlanta jury, for paying hush money to adult porn star Stormy Daniels to hide an affair in 2016, charged with a penalty of $ 250 million by lower Manhattan DA Ms Letitia James for fraudulently inflating his real estate value to get billions of dollars’ worth of loans, criminally defrauding the IRS by availing tax concessions in an elaborately orchestrated tax fraud case , a Ponzi scheme in which several investors lost monies, and a defamation suit filed by author E Jean Carroll for $ 10 million.

(The writer is a veteran, US-based journalist and author.)