The both times that Afghanistan has been occupied recently by foreign powers, India has found itself on the wrong side, on the side of the losers. India overtly, if not tacitly, supported the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. When the Soviets retreated and their empire started crumbling, India supported them to the bitter end.

Now the Americans are shaken to the core because of Afghanistan. Pakistan, China, Russia and Iran are all taking the side of the Taliban, but India is sticking to its friend, the US. The funny thing is that the US is trying to make nice with the Taliban, but India is still sticking to the side of the loser, the US.

Advertisement

What should India do in Afghanistan? There are things it can do, but first it must have the imagination and the determination to go it alone, and not stay determinedly by the side of a crumbling superpower. Historically, the Afghans were Hindu, and then they became Buddhist, and then Muslim. The first three hundred years of Muslim rule of India were led by Afghans. We are well-acquainted with them, the Pathans. Pathans constitute the Taliban.

Afghanistan was a close neighbour of India until Pakistan emerged. We have historical ties with Afghanistan. Pakistan tried to cut off our links with the Afghans, but Bollywood and cricket maintained those links for us. India is wildly popular in Afghanistan, even amongst sections of the Taliban. Pakistan, despite providing all sorts of support to the Taliban, is widely despised by them.

The Pakistani military, and in particular its spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is seen by the Taliban as too bossy. The ISI wants to enmesh the Afghans in its conflict with India. The Afghans have no conflict with India. Instead they have a longstanding dispute with the Pakistanis over their border with them, the Durand Line.

The Taliban pejoratively describe the Pakistanis as “blacklegs”. While India supported successive American puppet regimes in Afghanistan against the Taliban, the Taliban is not foolish not to recognize the enormous amount of infrastructure development that India has conducted in their country. That entire infrastructure is now being utilized by the Taliban.

So what should India do? First it must get a guarantee from the Taliban that they will not allow themselves to be used by Pakistan in any jihadi activity in our country. This would be a huge win for India, but it is also to be noted that the Taliban has no interest in Kashmir. In return for this guarantee, India must recognize the Taliban and establish full diplomatic relations with them.

Successive Indian governments have invested over $3 billion in Afghanistan when it was clear that the Americans were losing the war all the while. The Taliban are crying out for foreign investment. India must continue its development of Afghanistan. If India doesn’t do so, countries like China and surprise, surprise, the US are just waiting to fill in the void.

India mustn’t just have a goody-goody strategy towards Afghanistan. It is clear that Pakistan will not become a responsible nation unless it is broken up. The US was not defeated in Afghanistan so much by the Taliban as by the Pakistanis. The world is fed up to the gills with Pakistan’s misbehaviour. India has reportedly tried to help the Baloch rebels in Pakistan, but the Pakistanis have mercilessly quashed the Baloch insurgency.

Balochistan has adjacency with Iran, but Sistan and Bulechistan is but one province of Iran. It is not central to Iran’s existence. Sistan and Bulechistan has a population of 2.5 million; Iran’s population is over 80 million.

That is certainly not the case with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Pathan-populated province of Pakistan that Afghanistan claims. It has a population of about 35 million people, which is roughly the population of Afghanistan. Pathans constitute about 40 per cent of Afghanistan. More importantly, the new rulers of Afghanistan, the Taliban, are overwhelmingly Pathan.

It is important to note that when the Taliban ruled Afghanistan in the nineties and the early noughties, and while they were beholden to Pakistan for evicting the Soviets from their land, they never recognized the Durand Line as their official border with Pakistan. The Taliban consider the Durand Line as a figment of the British imagination. Afghanistan dearly wants to merge Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with itself. Needless to say the Pakistanis are not happy with this ambition. They want the Durand Line to be recognized as the international border with Afghanistan as soon as possible.

Just as Pakistan interferes in Kashmir, so too if India can regain the trust of the Taliban, it can become a potent force for Afghanistan’s claim over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Nothing will rile Pakistan more. In contrast to the Baloch insurgency, which does not appear to have significant support in Iran, any outpouring of emotion in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will serve as a rallying cry for Afghanistan to take charge.

Pakistan has always wanted Afghanistan as strategic depth against India. One, they can retreat into Afghanistan if India attacks. Second, they can rain their missiles on India from Afghanistan. And third, they can utilize jihadis from Afghanistan to launch a new jihad in Kashmir.

What the Pakistanis do not realize is that they have a soft underbelly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Taliban that is emerging now is one generation younger than the one that ruled Afghanistan in the nineties. This Taliban has helped the Americans leave their country in one piece. It is virulently opposed to the terror group, ISIS-K. It seems pragmatic and wants to live with the world.

It is also victorious and to the victor go the spoils. The Taliban would be very happy to efface the Durand Line. India must assist them in doing so.