India’s rapport with Bangladesh has plummeted to unprecedented depths, with Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus’ latest sojourn in China poised to further exacerbate the anti-India sentiment. Since Sheikh Hasina government’s dramatic fall in Dhaka last August, Bangladesh’s newly minted government has deftly cultivated a narrative portraying India as a Hindu majority hegemon thereby instilling widespread animosity towards India among Bangladesh’s youth, who have limited knowledge of the Bangladesh Liberation War, and India’s pivotal role it.

Actually, Bangladesh has managed to rebrand India as an exploitative neighbor, leveraging its Hindu majority status to foment anti-India sentiment. This rhetoric has quickly gained traction among Bangladesh’s younger generation. Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus is now spearheading a major overhaul of the country’s foreign policy, seeking to strengthen relationships across the continent – but notably excluding India from this effort. Yunus’ endeavours to normalize commercial, cultural, and military ties with Pakistan – India’s long time rival – have left India’s strategic cognoscenti perplexed.

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His confabulations with the ex-President of USA, Joe Biden and Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif, have garnered considerable international backing for Bangladesh’s nascent government. India’s External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar’s recent ultimatum has merely served to ratchet up tensions, while Delhi’s attempts to internationalize the minority issue have only served to vitiate bilateral relations. Yunus’ latest visit to China is expected to further exacerbate tensions between India and Bangladesh.

India needs an immediate recalibration of its Bangladesh policy to salvage its rapidly deteriorating relationship. As the largest neighbor and military-economic powerhouse in South Asia, India should adopt a more nuanced and mature approach, recognizing Bangladesh’s incumbent regime. The protracted animosity between the two nations will have farreaching repercussions for regional security, commerce, and India’s geopolitical influence.

Overall, it can be said from the foregoing analysis that Yunus’ visit to Beijing is set to further aggravate already strained Indo-Bangladesh relations. As the new interim government leader, Yunus faces a daunting task of rebuilding trust in Bangladesh’s institutions, which were severely eroded during Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule. This apart, greater closeness in relations with Pakistan, pertaining to military and trade, strengthening strategic ties between the two nations, as well as the establishment of joint business councils to promote trade and commerce, has raised concerns in India, which sees Bangladesh as a crucial partner in its ‘Act East’ policy.

The growing influence of China in Bangladesh, particularly in the military sphere, has also created unease in New Delhi. The current situation in Bangladesh is complex, with rising Islamist elements, communal tensions, and lawlessness. Yunus’ government has been criticized for its handling of these issues, particularly the recent release of Islamist leaders and the lifting of the ban on the Jamaat-e-Islami party. Bangladesh’s socio-political situation is presently in a state of transition and uncertainty. After intense protests and political turmoil in 2024, the country saw the unexpected resignation of ex-PM Sheikh Hasina, who had been in power for over a decade.

The interim government, led by Yunus, is navigating a complex web of challenges, including economic struggles, social unrest, and geo-political tensions. The government has pledged to hold free and fair elections by the end of 2025, but questions remain about the feasibility of this timeline. Besides, the country is also grappling with rising extremism, communal tensions, and human rights concerns. There have been reports of violence against minority communities, particularly Hindus, and the interim government is facing pressure to address these issues. This apart, in terms of foreign relations, Bangladesh is seeking to balance its ties with major powers, including China, India and the USA.

Overall, Bangladesh’s socio-political situation is fragile and uncertain, with many challenges ahead. The outcome of the upcoming elections and the government’s ability to address the country’s pressing issues will be crucial in shaping the country’s future. In this context, Yunus’s visit to Beijing is likely to be seen as a further tilt towards China, which could have significant implications for IndoBangladesh relations. India may view this development as a challenge to its influence in the region and could respond by strengthening its ties with other countries in the neighbourhood. We can outline the key implications of Yunus’s visit to Beijing increasing India-Bangladesh tensions as follows:

* Further strain on Indo-Bangladesh relations – Yunus’s visit could exacerbate the already tense relations between India and Bangladesh;

* Growing Chinese influence – The visit could cement China’s position as a key player in Bangladesh’s military and economic spheres;

* Rise of Islamist elements – The visit could embolden Islamist elements in Bangladesh, which could have significant implications for regional security;

* Impact on India’s ‘Act East’ policy – The visit could challenge India’s influence in the region and force it to re-evaluate its ‘Act East’ policy; These issues could potentially compromise India’s security architecture and strategic ambitions in the region, impact India’s $9 billion trade surplus with Bangladesh, compromise India’s capacity to project its influence and promulgate its supranational agenda in South Asia and beyond and underline China’s burgeoning presence where Beijing’s expanding footprint in Bangladesh, could potentially include docking rights for Chinese ‘research vessels’ at ‘Mongla’ Port. In this situation, the prospects of the Indo-Bangladesh relationship appear to be complex and challenging.

Despite diplomatic diversification efforts by Bangladesh, the two nations remain key partners, sharing historical, cultural, and economic ties. Key areas of cooperation include enhanced connectivity through rail links and the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline; strengthened trade ties through Special Economic Zones (SEZ) and cross-border policy development, and defense cooperation to maintain regional stability. Despite challenges, efforts must be made to strengthen ties and address shared concerns, building on the strong historical and cultural bonds between India and Bangladesh.

(The writers are, respectively, Associate Professor and Head, Political Science, Chandernagore Govt. College, and Associate Professor, Political Science, Galsi Mahavidyalaya, East Burdwan.)