The Rohingya Muslims induce perceptible fear and suspicion among many south Asian states. In some they are treated as illegal immigrants, while in others they are represented as a threat to national security.

The Rohingya are however considered by the United Nations to be one of the most persecuted communities in the world. Tens of thousands of Rohingya have fled from violence in Myanmar, seeking shelter in the neighbouring states of Bangladesh and India. Yet amid the hue and cry, India has taken a decision to close its borders and deport its 40,000 Rohingya, although more than 16,000 are registered with UNHCR, the UN refugee agency.

Taking a national-security approach, the Indian government has been eagerly exploring exit routes for the Rohingya. A short span of relief for the Rohingyas in India has come with a Supreme Court order upholding the central government plan of deportation until 21 November. However, underneath the pandemonium lurks a deep-rooted strategic tussle among major states in this region.

Amid this burgeoning global crisis, both the giant players, India and China, have been embroiled in a strategic tussle to position themselves as a peace mediator in the region. India is not a signatory to the UN Refugee Convention of 1951 and its 1967 protocol, which define a refugee’s rights and the obligations of the host country.

Nonetheless, India’s own guidelines on refugee issues, from the Foreigners’ division of the Ministry of Home Affairs indicate that all refugee claims will be examined, as the convention dictates, on the criterion of “a well-founded fear of persecution on account of race, religion, sex, nationality, ethnic identity”. While India has sought to balance its relationship with General Hlaing’s government in Myanmar, the ethos of humanitarianism has been compromised by Prime Minister Modi’s pursuit of a narrowly defined national interest.

Bangladesh has driven a strong agenda on the Rohingya at the UN Security Council, where the Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, conceded that the ‘humanitarian situation was not only a breeding ground for radicalisation, it also put vulnerable people – including young children – at risk of criminal elements including trafficking’.

Bangladesh has embraced hundreds of thousands of Rohingya, having left open its corridors for those fleeing Myanmar. Yet India has turned a blind eye to what the crisis has meant for Bangladesh – until recently. The Bangladesh Foreign Secretary speaking in New Delhi took the opportunity to reiterate Dhaka’s commitment to balance ‘sovereignty’ and ‘economic integration’ – code for support for China’s ‘One Belt and Road’ initiative. In this turmoil, China has come on board to support the Rohingya in Bangladesh, both via strategic aid as a peace mediator and through a substantial contribution of resources.

In a similar vein, on China’s insistence, the Minister for the Office of the State Counsellor of Myanmar, Kyaw Tint Swe, made an effort to hold bilateral talks with the Bangladesh Foreign Minister. The Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, told the UN Secretary General: “China is willing to continue promoting peace talks in its own way, and hopes the international community can play a constructive role to ease the situation and promote dialogue.”

As reported by its embassy in Bangladesh, China has donated over 150 tons of aid to the Rohingya refugees, including 2,000 relief tents and 3,000 blankets. Among western actors, Bangladesh has received strong support from the US, France and the UK. On the other hand, India has taken a back seat with its decision to deport the Rohingya living in different parts of the country, including Jammu and Kashmir. Both India and China have however enormous interest in Rakhine state – the region of Myanmar from which the Rohingya have been driven out by the army – which has vast strategic repercussions across the subcontinent.

Among several initiatives, China has secured its footing in Myanmar with the construction of a transnational pipeline which came into operation in 2013. Both India and China have huge stakes in this crisis, impacting their ties with Myanmar, Bangladesh and other stakeholders. India should thus weigh its options with greater clarity before implementing its deportation plan. With China’s interest heightening in this region, India would stand to lose immensely if the former alone lends its shoulder to the states battling with the humanitarian challenge.

Myanmar and Bangladesh both being parties to the 1948 UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, responsible states including India, China, the US, UK, France and others need to strengthen their diplomatic efforts to make plain to General Hlaing the potential consequences for those responsible for the atrocities committed against the Rohingya. In addition, the forthcoming UN Human Rights Council should be a critical platform for India, Bangladesh and other parties to stand up for the interests of this hapless community.

In such a scenario, India should think twice about its strategy of dealing with the refugees. China has a strong base in all of the neighbouring states, including Myanmar and Bangladesh, while India is reaffirming its role in the region. For India to take up a role as mediator in the crisis-ridden state would indicate a progressive foreign policy.

This ought to be pursued by policy-makers as an opportunity to redefine India’s image of a humanitarian aid-giver and peace mediator vis-a-vis its neighbouring bilateral partners.

Since the Nehru era, India’s adherence to core values of humanitarianism and respecting sovereignty of states has guided its foreign policy which has repaired its image time and again. For instance, its decision to endorse Bangladesh’s right to self-determination through partaking in its freedom struggle of 1971 and its intervention in the Sri Lankan civil strife.

While Bangladesh has been widely applauded for its effort to accommodate refugees seeking shelter, it seems like a miscalculation for India to deport the Rohingya at this hour. China engaging proactively with both Bangladesh and Myanmar has placed itself on a better footing, while India appears determined to walk the tough path, jeopardising its value-based foreign policies as well as its relationships with crucial partners in the region.

(The writer is associated with the Centre for Strategic Studies, Observer Research Foundation.)