After his re-election to a second term in office, the Chinese President struck a strongly nationalistic tone in his closing address to the annual session of the National People’s Congress, with a firm assertion that China would never allow “one inch” of territory to be separated from it. Xi thundered that China is ready to wage a “bloody war” to assume its due place in the world. Against the background of the decision of the NPA to abolish term-limits on his rule, which allows Xi to remain in office beyond 2023 and indefinitely, this observation by Xi has huge implications for the region. A belligerent Xi, now enjoying life-time tenure, asserted that the Chinese people were “closer now than at any time in history to realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.

Emphasising the need to maintain national sovereignty, territorial integrity and complete unification of the motherland as the common aspiration of all Chinese, he reminded the members that the Chinese people have the will and ability to “foil all activities to divide the nation” and are united in the belief that every inch of the motherland “absolutely cannot and resolutely will not be separated from China”.

Xi’s combative remarks on the territorial issue, specifically that not an inch of its territory would be ceded, could have been directed at many, including those seeking independence of Taiwan or “self-determination” in Hong Kong, Xinjiang or countries such as India, Japan or in South-east Asia, which have territorial disputes with China. It is a virtual threat that Xi declared. Though Xi did not mention any territorial issue, China is involved in a number of disputes with its neighbours. Besides the border dispute with India, China claims rights over the disputed islands in East China Sea under the control of Japan and vast stretches of the South China Sea where it is firmly asserting its control. Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan have counter-claims over the strategic South China Sea.

Taiwan is likely to be the first to face the Chinese heat. Beijing’s tough stance on its boundaries could also be a message to President Donald Trump as well. Trump has not only threatened to raise tariff on Chinese goods but has also irked Beijing over a legislation that Trump signed, which encourages frequent exchanges between the US and Taiwanese officials. Even when Trump prepares his trade war declaration, China is laying out its red lines.

In a clear message bordering on a threat to self-governing Taiwan, Xi resolved to advance the cause of “peaceful unification” with the island, whose 24 million citizens are strongly in favour of maintaining their de facto independent status. China fears secession by Taiwan and Hong Kong. While Taiwan is a self-ruled island which Beijing claims as its own and vows to unite it with China one day, Hong Kong, a former British colony and now a special administrative region of China, resents growing interference by Beijing. Echoing Xi’s views, Prime Minister Li Keqiang also observed that while China “will not abandon an inch of its own land, it will not take and occupy an inch of land of others”.

Xi’s speech to the closing session of the NPC came soon after Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act, which allows and encourages high-level official visits between Taiwan and the US. China denounced the bill, saying that its existence “severely violates” the “political foundation of the China-US relationship” and that it ignores Beijing’s “One-China” policy on Taiwan. China has demanded the US stop official exchanges, warning about the impact it could have on broader relations. It may be recalled that in 1949, following a bloody civil war, Taiwan became a self-governed island, although it is still officially considered the Republic of China. It has been the agenda of the Chinese Communist leadership to regain control of the “wayward” province that was founded 70 years ago.

China has periodically flexed its military muscle by military drills or sending naval vessels around Taiwan to intimidate, which Taiwan sees as “threats” to its national security. Not to be cowed down, Taiwan’s first female President and leader of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, Tsai Ing-wen, elected to office in 2016, wants to maintain peace. However, she has warned that if pushed, she will defend Taiwan’s security. Tsai wants to maintain the status quo and has advocated a policy of keeping a further distance between the two sides. In October 2017, The Washington Free Beacon  reported the newly discovered internal military documents indicated that China will invade Taiwan by force before 2020. Xi has warned the self-ruled island that it would face the “punishment of history” if it made any attempt toward separatism.

While Taiwan seems to be testing China’s patience, Beijing wants to ensure that Taiwanese enjoy the “opportunities of China’s development” and push for the “peaceful unification of the motherland”. China has periodically been warning Taiwan not to think on the way of independence and has not left any stone unturned to internationally isolate it by offering economic incentives to those small countries who still maintained diplomatic relations with Taiwan. But this time, Xi’s warning was the strongest that should worry Taiwan. China claims the self-ruled island of some 24 million is part of its territory. For Beijing, Taiwan is a sensitive issue and potential military flashpoint.

After China and Taiwan split amid a civil war in 1949, their political systems have headed in opposite directions since the 1980s. After a spell of authoritarian governments, Taiwan democratised in the 1980s and the overwhelming section of population is opposed to unification with authoritarian China. After Xi’s threat, Taiwan’s foreign ministry urged other countries to support Taipei’s role as a democracy in the region. Taiwan is walking a tight rope. While Beijing is likely to continue to ratchet up its political and military pressure on the island, it rolls out incentives to woo younger Taiwan citizens and business leaders over to its camp. In March 2018, Beijing announced 31 measures making it easier for Taiwanese to work, study, and invest in China. Now with the prospect of Xi staying in power indefinitely, a more aggressive posture by China on Taiwan with a view to integrate with the mainland either by persuasion or by use of force is not unthinkable.

(The writer is ICCR India Chair Visiting Professor at Reitaku University, Japan. Views expressed are personal and do not represent the opinion of ICCR or the Government of India)