As the Haryana Assembly election draws near, the ruling BJP, facing anti-incumbency after a decade in power, is gearing up for a challenging battle. Haryana will face a multi-cornered contest. The competition is mainly between the BJP and the Congress. Other participating parties include the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Samajwadi Party, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), and the Haryana Lokhit Party.

The BJP, JJP, and Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) have allied with Dushyant Chautala as their chief ministerial candidate. The INLD and BSP have allied with Abhay Singh Chautala as their chief ministerial candidate. The state is often called the land of Dharma due to its historical and cultural significance. Haryana polls are crucial for all the players. The BJP wants to get a third term. Congress hopes to return to power. The other regional parties are also wishing to share power. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP bagged all ten seats; in 2024, it got only five seats, and the Congress bagged the other five. Despite its past successes, the BJP is on the back foot.

The party is attempting to show its popularity has not declined. This is especially true after the Lok Sabha polls, as the BJP lacked a majority and had to form a coalition government with the help of JD(U) and Telugu Desam. The Congress, led by former chief minister Bhupendra Singh Hooda, is actively preparing for the upcoming Assembly elections. The party is optimistic about returning to power after a gap of ten years. The Congress senses that people are in the mood for a change. The party is strategically wooing the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Samajwadi Party for an alliance.

The impact of these alliances is significant. Meanwhile, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is facing allegations of involvement in a liquor scam, further adding to the unpredictability of the situation. Before 2014, the BJP had a minor presence in Haryana’s politics. However, after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the party grew. In 2019, the BJP formed the government with 40 seats, six short of the majority. The crucial support of Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which won ten seats was essential. However, JJP recently ended its alliance with the BJP.

The BJP’s vote share in Haryana decreased from 58.2 per cent in 2019 to 46.11 per cent in 2024. This decline is attributed to the farmers’ movement led by the non-political organisation Samyukt Kisan Morcha. The farmers demand a legal minimum support price (MSP) guarantee. The BJP needs to address the concerns raised by the Opposition, including issues related to livelihood and agriculture. In 2024, the INDIA bloc, a coalition of regional parties and Congress emerged as a significant force, surpassing the BJP’s vote share. This shift in voter sentiment might hurt the BJP.

In March, the BJP replaced Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar. Under new Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, the BJP has introduced welfare schemes and promised to fill government job vacancies. The party hopes to leverage the Jat issue but lacks the Jat support. Saini’s short six-month tenure has limited his impact. The Congress is upbeat after doubling its Lok Sabha seats. It raises issues like joblessness, inflation, farmers’ issues, and the controversial Agniveer scheme. The party is preparing its manifesto based on public suggestions, and it includes welfare schemes like a Rs 6,000 pension for old-age people and 300 units of free electricity. The party also counts on 452,000 first-time voters and 4.09 million young voters. The Congress wants to ensure that the Opposition’s votes remain unified, while the BJP strategically aims to divide the opposition votes.

The Congress also hopes to gain from the AAP’s influence on the constituents residing on the DelhiHaryana border. The AAP, being a major player in Delhi’s politics, has the potential to sway voters in the border areas of Haryana. The Congress is divided into two groups led by Hooda and Kumari Sailja. The party tries to satisfy both factions, but Hooda holds more influence because of his previous role as chief minister. The BJP is facing a tough battle in Haryana. Current public opinion indicates that the party may win fewer seats. The BJP’s weaknesses are the absence of strong leadership at the state level and a compelling counter-narrative against the Opposition.

Prime Minister Modi, who typically leads the party’s campaigns, has not addressed any election rallies yet. The Congress suffers from complacency, internal fights, and lack of organisation at the district and block levels. Too many ticket aspirants could hurt the party’s chances. If Congress wins Haryana, the number of Congress-ruled states will swell. Ultimately, the arithmetic of the election results will determine Congress’s victory. Also, the unity of the INDIA coalition is essential. The BJP may aim to minimise damage by securing the maximum seats or retaining the state, leading to a potentially significant outcom