The Pacific Island nation of Tonga hosted the 53rd Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders Meeting from 26 to 30 August 2024 in Nuku’alofa, Tonga. Chaired by the Prime Minister of Tonga, Hon Hu’akavemeiliku Siaosi Sovaleni, the meeting unveiled Tonga’s vision for the Pacific to move beyond policy deliberation to implementation ~ to achieve transformation by building a better future. Tonga recognises the importance of resilience, which cuts across all seven thematic areas of the 2050 Strategy.

The PIF Leaders meet annually to develop collective responses to regional issues and deliver on their vision for a resilient Pacific Region of peace, harmony, security, social inclusion and prosperity that ensures all their peoples can lead free, healthy and productive lives. The Pacific Islands Forum began in 1971 for leaders to coordinate responses to the issues confronting a remote, diverse region where individual nations hold little sway on the global stage. When globalisation gathered pace, low-lying islands soon found themselves imperilled by rising seas. Climate change thus emerged as an important global issue with the island nations facing critical choices. Annual meetings were not widely attended until the Pacific Ocean in recent years emerged as the site of an intense geopolitical contest for influence over waters, resources and political power.

As Beijing wooed Pacific leaders with loans, diplomacy and security agreements, Western alarm about its foothold in the region grew, prompting a rapid expansion of attendance of forum summits. In the summit meetings, the leaders engage in discussions and agree on policies that will ultimately benefit the people of the region. This gathering is a unique opportunity for the leaders to address pressing issues and challenges facing the Blue Pacific Continent, and foster collaboration and cooperation in the pursuit of shared goals. What transpired in the Forum’s meeting was China’s relentless push for influence in the South Pacific as leaders pledged to erase an affirmation of Taiwan’s involvement in the meeting from its closing statement, at Beijing’s behest. The PIF, a gro – up of 18 island nations, plus Australia and New Zealand initially included a re-assertion of the standing of self-governing Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, in a public communique outlining lea – ders’ agreements after their weeklong annual meeting.

But for inexplicable reasons it was removed the following day. This underscored China’s gro wing influence in the Pacific Island region as China’s special envoy at the forum Bo Qian succeeded in persuading the members to exclude any mention of Taiwan from the final communiqué. Beijing is even pushing for Taiwan’s exclusion from the forum altogether. This is China’s effort to isolate Taiwan further, and thereby assert its dominance in the region and deepen its strategic stranglehold. Succumbing to Beijing’s anger at the mention of Taiwan in the first draft, the forum leaders ended up fracturing a shaky accord. There was no explanation why the statement was changed at the last moment.

This chaotic end to the annual summit where member nations had emphasised regional unity and rejected major powers’ jostling for influence in their affairs found it difficult to balance the demands of larger countries with their common interests. This inevitably triggered a debate how some of the world’s tiniest nations are being seen by larger powers as their geopolitical pawns. It transpired thus how the ability of the forum members to pursue increasingly demanding regional agendas and manage the geopolitical interests of external actors puts the islands in a difficult dilemma. The mention of Taiwan in the approved document and then its removal in the one released raised questions about the autonomy of the region’s top diplomatic body, dem – on strating public display of China’s influencing-wielding capability.

In 2019, six Pacific nations recognised Taiwan as an in – dependent democracy, a snub to Beijing. But Beijing used coercive economy diplomacy co – mpelling another three to switch allegiance from Taipei to Beijing. Thus Tai pei’s allies in the region have dwindled now to only three. So, what were the areas prioritised for discussion at this year’s summit? The topics that dominated discussion were climate change, debt crisis, health and security, including fundraising for a Pacific-led climate and disaster resilience facility in Tonga. The forum also warned major powers against overshadowing the summit with geopolitical squabbling but it soon transpired that the forum succumbed to Beijing’s diktat.

An uneasy calm prevailed as superpowers made unusual overtures before Beijing finally prevailed, snubbing the forum members’ freedom to take their own independent decisions for their own interests. Though the US and China have evinced interest to cooperate and collaborate in joint projects to uplift the economic wellbeing of the Pacific island nations, such announcements are marked by pious pomposity as geopolitical rivalries do not easily go away. There is a history of both the US and China accusing each other as an aggressor in the region. It is difficult to comprehend what kind of cooperation both sides have in mind. The redeeming factor that one can read into this is that both the US and China are willing to show some restraint and not openly display their aggressive postures.

Even Australia, the closest country, cannot for its own geopolitical interests stay away from its interests in the South Pacific and is doing its bid to help out the island nations. For example, it has agreed to help out the region in a regional policing program by funding it and this has the endorsement of the US. Though the objective may be to counter China’s offers to equip and train Pacific police, it has not yet elicited any provocative response from Beijing. On the other hand, in a conciliatory and accommodative spirit, Beijing has openly welcomed that all parties make concrete efforts for the development and prosperity of the Pacific Island countries.

As regards Taiwan, though its mention in the final communiqué was omitted, the Pacific islands leaders privately agreed to allow Taiwan’s on-going attendance at the summit affirming the forum’s 1992 agreement on Taiwan’s stan – ding with the organisation. Surangel Whipps Jy., the President of Palau, one of three Pacific nations to recognise Taiwan, assured that Taiwan’s attendance would continue unchanged. He was not bothered that Palau’s stance enraged Beijing, which has continued to put pressure on Taiwan’s remaining allies to sever ties. The Solomon Islands, which severed diplomatic ties with Taipei in 2019 in favour of Beijing, will host the 2025 summit.

(The writer is former Senior Fellow at Pradhanmantri Memorial Museum and Library, Ministry of Culture, Government of India)