Traveling in the deepest jungles of Sabah on the island of Borneo last week kept my mind sane from the daily bombardment of crises news from around the world. Amidst the cries of gibbons in the dark, dawn is broken with the cacophony of bird songs. Here, we need not worry about the cruelties of man against man and which alpha male comes out as the next top dog.

Coming out of the jungle meant that one cannot ignore the return of Donald Trump, winning both Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, forcing former leading contender Ron DeSantis to withdraw, with only Nikki Haley as his only serious rival for securing the Republican nomination for the November Presidential elections. On the other side, incumbent President Biden is struggling in the polls, facing an escalating war in the Middle East that he cannot win (at least not in the short term). Gallup polls suggested that he entered 2024 with 39 per cent approval rating, the lowest for an incumbent President seeking re-election. His foreign policies have been a disaster, unifying the Global South against the US’s support of Israel’s slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.

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Without further aid from the US and Europe, the Zelensky regime in Ukraine is facing crushing defeat from a massive Russian offensive or a humbling negotiated peace. If the Houthis and Hezbollah widen the war in the Middle East, Biden would have a war loser image, on top of his occasional geriatric stumbles. Biden won last time from a record turnout vote against Trump. He is hoping that there will be a repeat in 2024.

However, the Republicans have toned down the temperature on abortion rights, whilst many of the Democratic youth are angry enough on the Palestinian issue to protest against Biden’s unqualified support for Israel. We should therefore be prepared for the return of Donald Trump as President by November, barring any court case that could stop him from running. What can we expect from Trump2.0? Domestically, given the huge polarization of views between the Democrats and the Republicans, you can be sure that Trump will push the right-wing agenda with vigour.

Trump’s return is indicative of the swing to the right in the West, as the recent elections in Argentina, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, and New Zealand have shown. What liberals fear most is that Trump will dismantle the institutional and constitutional checks and balances in the current system, with the culling of civil servants who defend these rights.

The US Supreme Court is already packed by Republican-nominated judges, so that if professional Federal civil servants are removed for political reasons, then the quality of justice, fairness and competence in the US administration will be compromised, with serious domestic and multilateral consequences. Opponents of America will not shed any tears if Trump does a slash and burn of US global leadership, which he started in his first term. Allies in Europe shuddered when Trump treated them like vassals (which Biden subsequently confirmed). The Democrats and the military-industrial complex were deeply worried about Trump’s penchant for dealing with dictators. It will come as no surprise that Russia is waiting for Trump’s return for a deal on settling the European security architecture. The most realistic outcome is a negotiated armistice like the Korean war, in which both sides simply retain the status quo. Diehard Ukrainian nationalists will feel betrayed, but the dovish Europeans, the Russians and the rest of the world would settle for a negotiated peace in which all sides can rebuild for the next fight. The loser will be Ukraine, which will be divided with casualties of nearly half a million dead or seriously wounded and its infrastructure in tatters. In the Middle East, Trump will try once again to use his personal charm to strike transactional deals. Given his close business and family ties to the Jewish community, he will stick with Israel, but will seek to re-assure Egypt, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and even Iran that he wants a delicate peace, rather than outright war.

Those who do not want unending wars would be happy to settle for US restraint of Israeli excesses. The losers will remain the Palestinians who will continue to suffer discrimination, if not apartheid and genocide. The more interesting situation is China and the Taiwan Straits. If Trump manages to settle with Russia, he would pacify his neo-con opponents because the United States can then focus on China, which is the only issue that American bipartisan politics can agree on.

There are many options going forward, but the most realistic but messy situation is that Trump does a deal also with Beijing, focusing on buying time to rebuild the American production economy and armaments supply chain, which has become truly inadequate by the lack of munitions to fight in supplying the Ukraine and Gaza wars.

Beijing would also want to have time to sort out domestic economic issues and draw lessons from the new tech-drone-missile warfare that Ukraine and Gaza have shown. For the Global South, expect Trump to continue his spending spree, using the Fed and dollar to fund the looming American trade and fiscal deficits. Of course, it would be a total surprise if Trump decides to start raising taxes and cut back the national debt, as staunch Republicans would prefer in theory.

But Trump is likely to use his political capital to push through tough measures on immigration, building the Wall, and have lower interest rates to reflate real estate, which is the core source of his wealth. And what of climate change? Trump is not known as a believer, so expect little leadership on cutting back shale oil and becoming generous to the Global South on financing NetZero initiatives.

In short, expect classic Trump volatility in terms of policies and a more personal, transactionary policy stance that preaches right-wing values but benefits the 1 per cent more than the 99 per cent. The enemies of the United States have less fear of Trump than her allies. These will be relegated to vassal status to do what they are told or lump it. Distant enemies have less to fear than close allies. Good luck, Europe!

(The writer, a former Central banker, writes on global affairs from an Asian perspective.)