Donald Trump’s return to the White House is expected to bring seismic shifts in US foreign policy, with implications for regions already grappling with escalating conflicts and complex geopolitical rivalries. His “America First” approach emphasises national interests over alliances, and his unpredictable style makes his policy trajectory uncertain. Yet, many clues from his campaign trail and previous administration offer insights into what might lie ahead.

In the RussiaUkraine conflict, Mr Trump has hinted at a willingness to push Kyiv toward a negotiated settlement, potentially conditional on NATO’s future. By signaling he could end the war swiftly, Mr Trump suggests he sees diplomacy through a cost-benefit lens, where American resources and national interests take precedence. This strategy, aimed at reducing the country’s role in overseas conflicts, could have profound consequences for European security. His critiques of NATO as a burden on America add to the unease among European allies who rely on American military backing as a deterrent against Russian aggression. If Mr Trump were to curtail US commitments to NATO, it might weaken the alliance’s collective security guarantees, emboldening adversaries and creating a more precarious environment for Europe.

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In West Asia, Mr Trump’s approach to bring “peace” likely involves reasserting a hardline stance on Iran, which he holds responsible for much of the region’s instability. He may re-impose sanctions and apply intense pressure on Tehran to curb its influence, particularly its backing of groups like Hamas. His previous actions, including moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and brokering normalisation deals between Israel and several Arab nations, underscore his pro-Israel stance, yet these also isolated the Palestinians and complicated peace efforts.

His unpredictability could either pressure regional leaders toward dialogue or intensify existing tensions, but Mr Trump’s willingness to depart from traditional norms suggests he might pursue a path that disrupts fragile balances in the region. On the US-China front, Mr Trump’s focus on economic rivalry suggests he may return to aggressive trade tactics. His past imposition of tariffs aimed to reduce the US trade deficit and bring manufacturing jobs back to America, but it also escalated tensions with Beijing. Mr Trump has implied he would counter any Chinese move to assert control over Taiwan with “paralysing” tariffs, signaling intent to use economic pressure over military action.

This could heighten volatility in the Indo-Pacific, impacting global supply chains and economic stability as other countries assess the risks of becoming collateral in the US-China rivalry. Mr Trump’s potential foreign policy points toward a recalibration of US alliances and priorities, shifting from multilateralism to more transactional, interest-driven partnerships. In prioritising “America First,” Mr Trump’s policies may refocus US commitments domestically, but at the cost of potentially weakening traditional alliances. For Europe, West Asia, and East Asia, this could mean a period of greater regional responsibility, with reduced expectations of US intervention. Whether this yields stability or greater instability depends on how effectively these regions adapt to a world where US influence is neither predictable nor reliable.