If Boris Johnson succeeds in saving his political career by not being ousted from office, the most important election of 2022 will take place south of the English Channel. The French presidential election, scheduled in April, will certainly determine the way the society and politics of France and Europe, in general, would be shaped in the coming years. Especially, the European Union which desperately needs to fill the vacuum created by the exit of Angela Merkel from the helm in Germany.

It is too early though to predict the outcome of the French election. With about three months to go, it is an interesting race yet, to unseat the incumbent president Emmanuel Macron. Do not forget that the farright leader Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National or National Rally (known as the National Front until June 2018), seen as Macron’s main rival, got nearly 34 per cent vote share in the second round of the 2017 elections. This was almost twice the 18 per cent vote share that her father Jean-Marie Le Pen won in 2002, the only previous presidential election in which the National Front made it to the second round.

Immigration, an anti-EU platform, and anti-globalization are Le Pen’s preferred themes. The left-wing populist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon floated his party, La France Insoumise – variously translated as ‘Unsubmissive France,’ ‘Indomitable France,’ or  Rebellious France’, in 2016. And Mélenchon could capture about one-fifth of the vote share in the first round vote of 2017. Anne Hidalgo of the Socialist Party is the current mayor of Paris. She has called for rebuilding the education and health systems and said that “the question of work should once again become a central issue.” Yannick Jadot of the Green Party and Valérie Pécresse of the right-wing Les Républicains also might draw crucial vote shares to influence other candidates’ fate.

And, in an important development, controversial columnist, television pundit, and author Eric Zemmour of the Reconquête, meaning Reconquest party, has bid for the Elysée. Zemmour is known for his provocations on Islam, immigration, and women. In fact, Zemmour’s candidature could harm the prospects of Marine Le Pen to quite some extent as both have some similar positions.

Immigration and electoral support for the far-left and the far-right are very important in French politics and society. An article presented in the conference ‘Immigration in OECD Countries’ in Paris in December 2017 by A. Edo, Y. Giesing, J. Öztunc, and P. Poutvaara studied the issue extensively. Based on electoral data, they concluded that immigration has a positive impact on votes for far-right parties and a modest negative impact on those for far-left parties.

In the backdrop of the 2022 French presidential elections, the reference of a controversial, intelligent, and mordantly funny novel titled ‘Soumission’, written by France’s most famous living literary figure Michel Houellebecq, is bound to be drawn. This novel was published in January 2015, a little more than two years before the 2017 French elections. Its English edition, ‘Submission,’ translated by Lorin Stein, was published later that year.

The conflict of the present-day French society, as a carry-over effect from its colonies – mostly in North Africa, is depicted in this novel against the perceived backdrop of the 2022 French presidential elections. In the social setup of France in 2014-15, Houellebecq could foresee the huge surge in popularity of the far-right National Front leader Le Pen. In fact, in the European Parliament elections in 2014, National Front topped among French parties. In Houellebecq’s novel, France is clearly amidst a political crisis in 2022.

To resist Le Pen, the Socialist Party supports the newly formed Muslim Brotherhood Party, along with additional support of the Union for a Popular Movement, formerly the main right-wing party. In Houellebecq’s novel, someone named Mohammed Ben-Abbes becomes the president of France in the 2022 elections! And Islamic law is instituted in France thereafter. In the county of great thinkers such as Voltaire and Rousseau, women are veiled, polygamy is encouraged, and university professors are offered an irresistible academic advancement on the condition that they convert to Islam. In the country that taught the world the spirit of liberté, égalité, fraternité, antisemitism becomes a major force.

The Jewish girlfriend of François – a middle-aged lecturer at the New Sorbonne University – must migrate to Israel. France’s age-old colonial burden comes into play – newly elected president Mohammed BenAbbes campaigns to extend the European Union to include North Africa also. He wants to make it like a new Roman Empire, with now-Islamicized France at its lead.

Well, ‘Soumission’ is like predicting a dystopian future. French novelist Emmanuel Carrère even compared it to George Orwell’s ‘1984’. The age-old dilemma of French society is depicted in Michel Houellebecq’s darkly comic masterpiece that mixes fiction with reality. Interestingly, real-life stalwarts such as Marine Le Pen, François Hollande, François Bayrou, Manuel Valls, and Jean-François Copé are present in the novel.

However, a then 37-year-old future leader named Emmanuel Macron is not a character in the novel. For, this former senior civil servant and investment banker was appointed as the Minister of Economy, Industry, and Digital Affairs only in August 2014 during the regime of President François Hollande. By the time Houellebecq wrote his controversial novel, Macron had not contested any election. His party, La République En Marche!, meaning ‘The Republic On The Move’ would be formed a year later. And he would run in the presidential election after one more year, at the age of 39. He would become the youngest president in French history and the youngest French head of the state since Nepoleon, and also the first president of France born after the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958.

Who says that fairytales are confined to children’s bedtime stories. Houellebecq, however, could not imagine such a possibility. It’s certain that his ‘Soumission’ would have included Emmanuel Macron had it been written after the 2017 French presidential election.

Macron, certainly, could defer the breaking of the European Union, at least to some extent. French society, of course, bears the carry-over effect from its colonies. Zinedine Zidane, Thierry Henry, Kylian Mbappé – one after another – dominate their national football teams, for example. And the tussle between the right-wing and left-wing parties, including the far-right and extreme left, and the balancing act of centrist parties would continue in mixed French society. Also, the conflict between pro-Europeans and Eurosceptics continues as in other European countries.

If Michel Houellebecq writes a revised edition of ‘Soumission’ with a deferred time-frame, a 44-year-old former investment banker named Emmanuel Macron would certainly be a part of the book. His influence is precious in the present-day politics of France and Europe. Whatever happens in the April election, the profound influence of Macron’s powerful centrist politics along with his call ‘En Marche! has certainly been instrumental in deferring a hypothetical ‘Soumission’ or ‘Submission’ of French society. At least for the time being.

(The writer is Professor of Statistics, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata.)