Surge As France heads into the first round of parliamentary elections today, the surge of the far-right National Rally (RN) under Ms Marine Le Pen has captured global attention. The RN, long a marginal force in French politics, now stands on the brink of a historic breakthrough, potentially securing a majority in the National Assembly. This development is not just a seismic shift for France but a moment of reckoning for Europe and democracies worldwide. The polls indicate that the RN could secure up to 37 per cent of the vote, a rise that reflects deep-seated discontent with the current political order. The centrist bloc, led by President Emmanuel Macron, appears to be losing ground, and the left-wing New Popular Front remains stagnant.

This fragmentation of traditional political forces underscores the growing polarisation in France. Several factors have contributed to this surge. Mr Macron’s presidency, marked by probusiness reforms and a perceived aloofness from the struggles of ordinary citizens, has left many feeling alienated. Issues like the rising cost of living and deteriorating public services have created fertile ground for populist rhetoric. Ms Le Pen has skilfully capitalised on these grievances, softening the party’s image and broadening its appeal beyond its traditional base. The implications of an RN-led government are profound. For France, it would mean a dramatic shift in domestic and foreign policy. Despite efforts to moderate its stance, the RN’s core positions remain deeply Eurosceptic and nationalistic. A government led by the RN could strain France’s relationship with the European Union, posing a significant challenge to the bloc’s cohesion at a time when unity is crucial.

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The RN’s fiscal policies also raise concerns about economic stability, as promises of increased public spending clash with the need for fiscal responsibility. Moreover, the potential for political paralysis looms large. Should the RN fall short of an outright majority, France could face a hung Parliament. This scenario would lead to a fraught “cohabitation” between Mr Macron and an emboldened far-right, creating legislative gridlock and undermining effective governance. The stakes are high, and the uncertainty is palpable. The rise of the RN is not an isolated phenomenon. Across Europe and beyond, far-right and populist movements are gaining traction, fuelled by economic anxiety, cultural shifts, and a sense of disenfranchisement. This trend poses a direct challenge to the liberal democratic order established after World War II.

It calls into question the effectiveness of mainstream political parties in addressing the needs and concerns of constituents. The outcome of France’s Parliamentary elections will resonate far beyond its borders. It is a pivotal contest that could reshape the country’s future and alter the trajectory of European politics. The rise of the RN reflects broader global trends that challenge the foundations of democracy and demand a renewed commitment to addressing the root causes of populism. The world holds its breath, contemplating the implications of this critical juncture in history