When South Africa hosted the 15th Brics Summit from 22 to 24 August 2023 in Johannesburg, several world leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended. The issue of the bloc’s expansion was extensively deliberated. Russian President Vladimir Putin decided not to travel and thus skipped the summit. In a move to strengthen its claim of being a ‘voice of the Global South’, six countries ~ Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE ~ that had shown interest were invited to join the alliance.
As mentioned, this decision raises hope as well as fear of China’s increasing dominance. It is however a truism that the addition of the developing nations to the bloc indicates establishing a solid coalition to serve the interests of the Global South In this scenario, it would be relevant to examine India’s position and what it means for New Delhi when some members of the Asean group have evinced an interest to join. Some reports say that more than 40 nations have indicated an interest in joining the bloc of major developing economies. Other reports claim that 30 countries have conveyed their willingness to join the group, with 22 of them applying formally. This figure might increase with the interest of some countries of the Asean grouping. The fact is that many countries see that being a part of Brics is a major opportunity.
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It was China that first initiated the conversation in 2022 about expanding the body as it tried to build diplomatic clout to counter the West’s dominance in the United Nations and push forward its economy after the Covid slowdown. While China and South Africa support the expansion and Russia should fall in line with China, India and Brazil are concerned that their own influence will diminish. India views such a rapid expansion of the group with suspicion, but has not opposed it in public. India’s official position is that BRICS’ expansion process should go through “full consultation and consensus” among members of the bloc. External affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has clarified in the past that the expansion of the Brics bloc is still a work in progress and member countries are approaching the idea with a positive intent and an open mind.
India suggests that if Brics intends to expand, it should consider emerging economies and democracies like Argentina and Nigeria, rather than Saudi Arabia with its autocratic rule. New Delhi is also sceptical of the inclusion of new members as it could tilt the bloc more towards China. What does the expansion mean for India? That is a moot question. India is cognizant of the perception that the expansion move is a direct challenge to the West, as the move supported by China and Russia is seen as a way to counter Western dominance and the global trade in dollars. The expansion of Brics could serve a major blow to the US dollar, which is currently the world’s reserve currency.
If Brics were to launch its own currency, it could provide an alternative to the dollar and could reduce its dominance. When the Ukraine war broke out and the West imposed sanctions on Russia, a number of countries including India started using alternate currencies for trade. New Delhi also used Chinese yuan to make payments for Russian oil imports. Because of this experience, it could be a good idea if member states start exploring the possibility of launching a Brics currency. If done successfully, it could be a major step towards a more multi-polar world economy. The New Development Bank (NDB), which was established by Brics countries, can play a crucial role in providing funding for infrastructure projects, sustainable development initiatives and other priority areas. Every nation crafts it foreign and foreign economic policies based on its national interests. India’s position on Brics’ expansion is no exception.
It is for this reason that India stressed on the consensus principle with a view to block some countries aspiring to be in Brics, as it feels their presence in the group would be unpalatable to its interests. The core point is the strained relationship with China, which remains the primary driving force in determining its stance on the membership issue. For example, it is a truism that India’s alignment with the West remains a major factor for its decisions regarding certain states. For example, India’s decision to block Belarus from joining the Brics stemmed from its stance on Ukraine and sanctions from the West. Another example is its stance on Cuba as India endorsed the US position that Cuba provides a safe haven for Chinese spies and thus blocked the South American developing economy in the Brics framework. As can be discerned, India is opposed to several countries that hold anti-Western positions aspiring to be in the Brics fold.
India’s stance on Pakistan is not surprising. Given China’s interest in Pakistan’s integration into the Brics framework and against the Indo-Pak rivalry over a host of issues, India is not expected to endorse China’s efforts to rope in Pakistan to develop Brics as a geopolitical rival to the Western group. On its part, Islamabad is aware that India is committed to its principle of unanimity in the expansion mechanism of Brics and therefore knows that India would resist Pakistan’s inclusion at all costs. Also, India would not yield space for China’s designs to bring countries subscribing to its policies into Brics, as that would undermine its own interests.
India is sensitive to the possibility that China could utilise Brics to expand its strategic influence in the developing world, which might undermine India’s growing engagement with these nations. Pakistan needs to be aware that India maintains its policy of Neighbourhood First minus Pakistan, which stems from its historical experiences. So long as India-Pakistan relations are not brought to normal, India is likely to block any effort by any other Brics member to bring Pakistan into the framework. Critics might argue that India’s stance on Pakistan or that of any other country obstructing inclusion into an economic bloc meant to further the interests of third-world countries contradicts the very principles underlying the formation of the alliance.
But when national interests and security comes into play, there cannot be any compromise and India must not be expected to deviate from its stance. India is unlikely to concede an inch to China’s design to rope in Pakistan into the Brics framework, and thereby expand its strategic influence in the developing world which would be detrimental to its interests
(The writer is a former Senior Fellow at Pradhanmantri Memorial Museum and Library, New Delhi)
