Since the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), a non-governmental organisation based in Geneva, started collating data on persons displaced by disasters in 2018, this set of the population has been increasing. By the end of that year, some 1.6 million people displaced by disasters were still in camps or places away from their homes. The World Migration Report 2020, published by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) of the UN, had established the role of natural disasters in migration, saying: “Many more people are newly displaced by disasters in any given year, compared with those newly displaced by conflict and violence, and more countries are affected by disaster displacement.”

According to its latest version entitled The World Migration Report 2022, in 2020, 30.7 million new displacements were triggered by disasters in 145 countries and territories. The total internal displacement due to disasters, conflicts and violence has increased in comparison to 2019. The report quoted the regular data collation by the IDMC. The latest figure on new displacement covers those who have been displaced due to sudden-onset disasters and within the respective country.

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However, according to IDMC, data was still not complete in case of displacement due to slow-onset disasters and inter-country displacement. In fact, most of the new displacements are due to climate–related events. Status of global internal displacement (2020) is given in the table published here: The World Bank’s Ground swell Report of 2021 estimates that by 2050, 216 million people will face internal migration within their country, with the majority of these migrations happening in sub-Saharan Africa. Countries like India, Bang – ladesh and China along with numerous countries from the Southeast Asian regions will also be impacted by the rising sea levels.

Seventeen per cent of Bangladesh is predicted to be threatened by submergence due to the rising of sea levels which will displace a vast population by 2050. According to some estimates, India, being a vast country with varied geographical features, may also face substantial migration of up to 45 million people due to climate change-induced disasters, ranging from land degradation, coastal floods, to desertification, by 2050. Indeed, the climate crisis and human displacement are increasingly interconnected. Our understanding of the interconnection is growing. But the ways in which the rapidly changing climate is forcing people to move and making life harder for those already displaced are complex and evolving. This has allowed myths and disinformation to abound.

It is held that climate change will trigger largescale cross-border movements from the Global South to the Global North. But this myth is not supported by current evidence. Whether fleeing conflict or disaster people prefer to remain as close as possible to home and family. Those forced to abandon an area severely affected by climate change are also less likely to have the means to move long distances. When we use the term ‘climate-related displacement’ to refer to people fleeing extreme climate, we should bear in mind that climate change is a threat multiplier ~ it magnifies the impacts of other factors that can contribute displacement such as poverty, loss of livelihoods, and tensions relating to dwindling resources.

Hence, the understanding of climate change, as being not just a direct driver to displacement but a ‘threat multiplier’ is key to the United Nation High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)’s response. It is true that the climate is already changing. According to NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) report, the average global temperature in 2023 was about 1.020 C higher than the average temperature from 1880 to 1900. But it is not too late to act. We can help better prepare for extreme weather and adapt to climate change by tackling some of the root causes of displacement that are amplified by climate change such as poverty, inequality and violence. And also by building resilience and adapt to the climate impacts for example through tree planting projects, advocacy campaigns, disaster preparedness efforts and fighting bush fires.

At the International level, various International organisations have been formulating policies and devising appropriate strategies to mitigate climate-related problems faced by humans. The Cancun Adaptation Framework of 2010 took an important step in addressing displacement, relocation, and migration resulting from climate change. The National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) have been developed by several countries with the support of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

It comprises various strategies and adaptation plans in dealing with climate change. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) along with its Copenhagen Climate Centre has a Nationally Determined Contribution Action Project (NDC) which focuses on the mitigation strategies related to climate change and signifies the individual effort by every state to work towards climate change and reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. UNEP strongly recommends the integration of the displaced population in the Nationally Determined Contribution Action Project as well as in the National Adaptation Plan.

It also recommends meeting the adaptation strategies for the population at risk. This is in line with the self-reliance objectives of the Global Compact on Migration and Global Compact on Refugees for the displaced population and the host countries. While international organisations have been highlighting the adaptation plans and mitigation strategies to cope with climate induced migration and displacement, countries are also increasingly developing strategies to minimize climate risks for their vulnerable population. There are also bilateral agreements among countries. Australia and New Zealand are working towards addressing the challenging of climate–induced migration through bilateral agreements.

To address climate change challenges India has launched initiatives like the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) and the National Adaptation Fund on Climate Change (NFFCC) to promote climate resilience and adaptation effects. Environmental disasters or even gradual but significant environmental changes have been one of the prime reasons for human migration for millennia. Humankind has a history of dealing with this issue. However, in the present times, this issue has acquired a new dimension due to the fear of highly adverse and complicated environmental impacts caused by climate change. It seems to be a great paradox which brings home the new reality of disasters emerging as the main reason for internal displacement.

As shown above, in recent years, climate disasters are displacing more people than historically dominant reasons of conflicts and violence. Keeping all these realities in view though the term ‘ecological migrant’ is not yet officially recognised in international law. It is an increasingly important concept in discussions around climate change, sustainability and human rights.

(The writer is a retired IAS officer)