The early onset of summer across India this year is more than just a shift in seasons ~ it is a signal of a deeper, systemic problem that threatens livelihoods, economic stability, and the foundations of India’s agrarian society. While rising temperatures have become an almost routine headline, the consequences are now unfolding in ways that should alarm both policymakers and ordinary citizens.

One of the most immediate casualties of India’s changing climate is its small and medium enterprises, which form the backbone of the economy. In cities like Ludhiana, traditionally known for its robust winter garment industry, decades old business models are collapsing. Winter clothing manufacturers, who had fine-tuned their production cycles to meet seasonal demand, are witnessing a shrinking market. As winters grow shorter and milder, retailers are shying away from confirmed orders, shifting to “sale or return” models that place the entire risk on producers. Some businesses have already been forced to shut down, unable to navigate these abrupt changes. Agriculture, the livelihood of nearly half of India’s population, is even more vulnerable.

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Heatwaves have slashed yields of staple crops like wheat, chickpeas, and rapeseed, and prized horticultural produce such as the Alphonso mango has suffered devastating losses. Reports of farmers reducing their workforce because there is no work to offer are becoming increasingly common. The ripple effects are clear: lower yields lead to higher food prices, worsening inflation, and potentially trigger further restrictions on exports in an effort to protect domestic supply. The situation is exacerbated by declining water availability.

Reservoir levels in parts of northern India have dropped alarmingly, threatening irrigation for the next crop cycles. Reduced water availability will not only hurt crop production but also impact the dairy sector, where reports of declining milk output are already surfacing. These climate-induced economic shocks have the potential to derail India’s growth trajectory. Rural consumption, which had shown signs of recovery after a prolonged slowdown, is at risk once more. Urban consumption remains tepid, and private investment has yet to regain momentum. If agricultural incomes decline and food prices spike, the Reserve Bank of India’s delicate balancing act of supporting growth while keeping inflation under control could become even harder. India stands at a crossroads. The climate crisis is no longer a distant threat ~ it is a reality staring the country in the face. Urgent adaptation measures are needed.

These include better weather forecasting systems, accessible agricultural insurance, and the adoption of climate resilient cropping patterns. Without such interventions, India risks enduring cycles of economic distress, widening inequality, and social unrest. The early arrival of summer is a warning. Ignoring it could cost India not only in terms of lost economic output but also in lost lives and livelihoods. It is time to act decisively, before seasonal changes become irreversible damage.