A few decades back, a decreasing number of countries were given taints of autocracies and dictatorship (even though many were under undemocratic monarchies). Most of those pariahised nations were the last surviving legacies of the Soviet-led side of the Cold War era e.g., North Korea, Cuba, Zimbabwe, Venezuela etc. On the opposite side was the growing comity of the so called ‘Free World’ (participative democracies) countries that stood against repression, intolerance, and illiberal tendencies of yesteryears. Later, owing to various metastasized reasons, the so called ‘Free World’ too started generating its own strain of intolerance and illiberality with the advent of far-right, conservative, and revisionist preferences that started approximating the autocracies of the past.

Now the citadel of the ‘Free World’ sensibilities i.e. the proverbial ‘West’ is also reeling under the surge of extremist rightwing populism. From the fringe to the centerstage of politics, their spectacular rise is emerging in the capitals of Italy, Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, the Czech Republic, and now with Donald Trump, in the United States of America yet again. Traditional and tactical efforts to keep these hardliners and ‘strongmen’ away from power with tactics such as cordon sanitaire (firewall) in countries like France, Netherland, Sweden etc. are almost crumbling. What unites them beyond seeking absolute control of the supposed institutions of checks and balances are things like ‘othering’ of minorities, antiimmigration, majoritarism, lack of concern towards issues like climate change, feminism and pathological dislike of the LGBTQ populace. While each such country and its leader exemplifies varied degrees of such impulses, they spike their extremist version with certain unique attributes, for example Recep Erdogan or Benjamin Netanyahu typically add religiosity to the ultranationalistic admixture, Vladimir Putin infuses the lost Tsarist glory, Marine Le Pen would invoke supremacist French grandeur, etc.

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While they may even oppose each other ~ Israel vis-à-vis Turkey ~ both sides represent the same undemocratic desperation, albeit representing different flags and supposed causes. However, one country and a leader that is not a recent convert to autocratic moorings is the Belarusian Head of State, Alexander Grigoryyevich Lukas – henko ~ the first and only President of Belarus since the post’s establishment in 1994. With over 31 years of uninterrupted power, he is the longest-serving Head of State in Europe. Widely castigated as ‘Europe’s last dictator’, he takes Belarusians to cast their ballots in what has already been and credibly feared as yet another ‘sham’ election. In many ways he has set the governance template for many other authoritarians to emulate, as was noted by Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez of Belarus under Lukashenko: “We see here a model social state like the one we are beginning to create”. Lukashenko’s foremost strategy was to posture himself and invest in the popular narrative as “the man of the people” unlike other opposition leaders.

Revisionism of the imagined past glories (in his case, Russification) became critical as he reset the symbols associated with the nation i.e., coat of arms, national flag, language et al. Once fairly elected (only in the first term, as thereafter manipulations were rife) he usurped leverage over all institutions of checks and balances, including the authority to dismiss the Security Council, control the security apparatus, brutally ‘manage’ the media, and crack down on opposition protests etc. He even reneged on the existing limits to Presidential terms as he rewrote the constitution through referendums that allowed him unlimited terms. His initial spiel was to root out endemic corruption that he claimed was holding the country ‘hos tage’ from realising its potential ~ the masses had fallen for the promises hook, line and sinker.

Later, he was to gag the entire governance system to perpetuate his own rule, first and foremost. Megalomania was inherent as he allowed the paternalistic and ‘nationalistic’ image of ‘Bat’ka’ (father of the nation) to spread wide, as he eagerly sought out generous pictures of a workaholic (shown partaking ‘Subbotnik’ ~ toiling with work on holidays). But amongst his partymen and professional colleagues, he instilled fear and unpredictability with legions of how he does not take kindly to colleagues acting as equals, or even making direct eye-contact. Today, even though he appoints ostensible loyalists and politically unthreatening individuals to high seats of power, no one can take their seat for guaranteed, as the inherently distrustful Lukashenko carries out routine purges to unsettle the system, to his own advantage.

For understandable reasons, career military men do not hold top posts as that could make him vulnerable to coups. The author of the unofficial biography of Lukashenko, Valery Karbalevich, notes his increasingly totalitarian instinct, “It is forbidden to criticise Lukashenko. It is forbidden to doubt the correctness of the state line. If a person is found (doing that) on social networks, he or she is immediately detained for this”. Lukashenko has also granted himself and his family lifelong immunity from any prosecution in case he retires, although retirement is certainly not part of his current plans. While stridently ‘anti-West’, given his natural disdain for democracy and its accompaniments, he is not ideologically committed to any side either. His alliance with Russia under Vladimir Putin is tactical, practical and necessary, to have a sovereign counterpoise, but it may not be personal chemistry at work as Lukashenko did have frosty relations with Putin earlier. Now as Russia gets internationally isolated (as does Belarus under Lukashenko) it makes immense sense to make common ground and indulge in grandstanding, as Putin too would rather have a fawning and obliging Lukashenko than a flipping Ukraine under Zelenskky on its border.

Yet another refrain of having crushed all opposition is the frequent question “if not Lukashenko, what is the alternative?”, as Lukashenko spreads fears of instability should he be ousted. Surprisingly, it works. In an incredulous mockery of democracy, only those who actually support his candidature are allowed to stand against him in the elections. One of his four supposed rivals for the Presidential elections, Sergei Syrankov, admits, “Not instead of, but together with Lukashenko!” and unbelievably says, “There is no alternative to Alexander Lukashenko as the leader of our country…So, we are taking part in the election with the president’s team.” Lukashenko is presumably chuffed with such stands by his patronized ‘rivals’, while the real opposition has been completely obliterated, discredited, and disallowed from participating in the elections freely. Now, the Belarusian leader who is infamous for setting the totalitarian template is embarking on his eighth term

(The writer is Lt Gen PVSM, AVSM (Retd), and former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry)