If ever a treatise was to be written on how not to fight terrorism, the Imran Khan administration in Pakistan would find pride of place as an exemplar. Not only when it comes to cross-border terrorism but also within the country itself.

In the process, the radicalisation of what could have been a moderate Muslim society in South Asia as envisaged by Pakistan’s founder MA Jinnah is now an accomplished fact. These observations are brought on by the Pakistani state’s approach toward the terrorist group Tehrik-eTaliban Pakistan (TTP) which, experts agree, has been resurgent ever since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan last year.

In a recent paper on non-state armed actors in this part of the world, Madiha Afzal notes that the TTP is not only closely aligned with the Afghan Taliban but has also been responsible for killing tens of thousands of Pakistanis between 2007 and 2015. The Afghan Taliban’s rise to power ~ considered a “strategic win” for Pakistan and publicly welcomed by several politicians and officials in that country ~ has, she asserts, provided an unmistakable boost to the TTP. The TTP has clearly intensified its terror tactics with a wink and a nod from its allies in the Afghan Taliban.

According to the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), 207 terrorist attacks which claimed 335 lives took place in Pakistan in 2021, an increase of 42 per cent relative to 2020. The TTP alone was responsible for 87 attacks, an increase of 84 per cent over 2020. The TTP has itself claimed 282 attacks in 2021 and said that it had killed more than 500 law enforcement personnel; it claimed an additional 42 attacks in January 2022. The hard-hitting campaign by the Pakistan Army against the TTP insurgency of a decade ago which had the terror group on the run is a faint memory now and the latest numbers reflect this reality.

The TTP has, since 2018, focussed its violence against Pakistani military and intelligence targets rather than civilians, a significant change from earlier years. Two significant consequences of this tactical shift are visible: Many of the TTP attacks are in remote areas where security personnel are more vulnerable; the Pakistani state has tightly controlled information about the attacks in the public sphere.

Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Khan’s television interview a few months ago in which he announced the government was “talking to the TTP as part of a reconciliation process” caught both parliament and the public by surprise. Speculation has since swirled that Islamabad would be open to pardoning TTP members if they laid down their arms and accepted the legitimacy of the state under the current Constitution. There could not be a more horrific example of normalising radical violence. But then Mr Khan has been an advocate of a “negotiated settlement” with all manner of Islamic terrorists ever since he entered politics. What may, however, upset his plans are reports of widespread discontent within the security-intelligence establishment which has borne the brunt of TTP terrorism.