The AIADMK’s decision to end the partnership with the NDA at national and state levels may put the BJP at a disadvantage in winning Tamil Nadu. The BJP had been piggybackriding on the Dravidian party.

The political path ahead may impact the 2024 elections and shift the balance of power among Tamil Nadu parties. It could also mean that the AIADMK will no longer have the support of the Modi government as a powerful ally.

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On Monday, former AIADMK minister Munuswamy announced that AIADMK was ending all associa- tions with BJP and NDA. He went on to state that the BJP state leadership (Annamalai) had intentionally defamed party icons like former Chief Ministers C.N. Annadurai and Jayalalithaa and criticised party policies in a planned and motivated manner.
This decision will have significant effects on both state and national politics. AIADMK is the only major party within the NDA at the national level. Previously, the NDA was com- posed of several well-known parties, including the Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, Telugu Desam, and AIADMK. They all left at some point.

The BJP has not established a sig- nificant presence in Tamil Nadu despite earnest efforts – the power has switched between the DMK and AIADMK since 1967. The AIADMK has ruled 30 out of their 50 years.

The BJP had become a liability for the AIADMK as the party faced con- sistent defeats in every election since 2016. In the most recent election of 2021, AIADMK won 75 seats, a decrease from its previous total of 136. As a result, the DMK-Congress coalition came to power.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, AIADMK won one seat, a significant decline from its previous 37, while DMK’s seats went up from 0 to 39. As a result, the AIADMK cadres consider their affiliation with the BJP a liability.

Despite repeated efforts by BJP leaders, including Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to connect with voters in Tamil Nadu, the party has not garnered much popularity in the region. During his visits, Modi often referenced Thirukural and presented the Sengol when the new Parliament was completed. In a recent NDA meeting, Modi gave former Chief Minister Eda- padi Palaniswamy a place of honour by seating him beside him.

The AIADMK will work to win back minority voters after ending its alliance with the BJP. The BJP received only 5 per cent of the vote in the last election. In comparison, the two Dravidian parties had a significant base of 25 per cent.

The upcoming Lok Sabha elec- tions are critical for BJP, while AIADMK focuses on the 2026 Assem- bly polls. PM Modi aims to secure a third term in the 2024 elections.
According to insiders, Annamalai’s rude behaviour was not the only reason for the split. The BJP needs the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu,
and the AIADMK needs the BJP to fight DMK. Despite multiple complaints from AIADMK, the BJP contin- ues to support an indisciplined Annamalai. The disagreement over seat sharing was the unstated reason behind it. The AIADMK is a more sig- nificant political party in the state, and the ambitious BJP demanded 20 out of the 39 Lok Sabha seats. In the 2019 elections, both parties failed to win any seats in Tamil Nadu due to a lack of shared ideology.

Former chief minister Palaniswamy has complete control of the party and has united it. He and other senior AIADMK leaders strongly opposed the re-inclusion of Sasikala, who was a companion of Jayalalitha, Sasikala’s nephew TTV Dhinakaran, and former Chief Minister O. Panner- selvam, even in the BJP’s quota. Palaniswamy has effectively removed them from AIADMK and now holds complete command. The focus was seat sharing and ensuring they were kept out. Palaniwamy apprehends that the party would have four factions if they were in.
Thirdly, Annamalai has been bat- ting for going alone in the elections, and a section of the BJP was not averse to it. Annamalai wants to build a new coalition with smaller parties.

The DMK coalition may be impacted, and there’s talk of Congress allying with the AIADMK. The outcome will depend on how the seats are allocated. Every party’s main objective is to win as many seats as possible. Afterwards, caste, financial resources, and political influence will become significant. The upcoming Lok Sabha elections are crucial for the DMK,AIADMK,and BJP,withtheBJP having the most to lose.

There’s talk of the BJP and AIADMK joining forces again for the Lok Sabha elections. Aside from Karnataka, the BJP lacks support in the South and hopes to gain more seats by forming alliances. Analysts predict that the separation will be brief. The BJP is currently waiting for five states’ upcoming state assembly polls. In the meantime, Annamalai may be promoted and removed from Tamil Nadu. Once this issue is resolved, the AIADMK will have a major grievance addressed.

The leaders of BJP and AIADMK have instructed their respective par- ties to refrain from making derogatory comments about each other. Anna- malai also believes that the national leadership will address the separation. The AIADMK is looking for a new way to criticize the BJP despite supporting the Modi government’s laws in Parliament. The BJP is also searching for a new issue for the 2024 elections.
In politics, one week is said to be long. Anything could happen in the coming six months before the polls.