Anew world is on the anvil with five billion consumers projected to be part of the global population by 2031. As long as there is no massive economic shock to the world, black swan events included, the world will add another billion consumers in just the next eight years ~ in the shortest time ever recorded. Asia is projected to contribute 81 per cent of the new consumers in 2024, with India and China accounting for over half the increase.

Significantly, as China ages, for the first time the number of new people in the consumer class in India will outpace China, making India a leading global driver of consumer growth. The World Data Lab (WDL) in a recently released report asserts that the “continuous growth of the global consumer class is the biggest news that no one is talking about.” Neither the global financial crisis, nor the Covid-19 pandemic, or even the war in Ukraine and high inflation have stopped the growth of the consumer class. In fact, economic momentum in Asia and higher life expectancy worldwide mean that consumers globally are countering even the most severe economic shocks.

WDL defines the consumer class as constituting those spending at least $12 per day (measured in 2017 purchasing power parity, or PPP prices). Each year, the world is typically thought to add between 110 million and 130 million new consumers. The exception in the past 25 years was in 2020 when the world consumer class fell by 75 million people due to the impact of Covid-19. This dip was short-lived, though, as 2021 came with a strong rebound, adding 180 million consumers. With these latest adjustments, WDL projects that the world has reached a tipping point where more than half its population is in the consumer class: There were approximately 4 billion people in the consumer class in June 2023, and the world will add 113 million more in 2024.

In addition to India and China, 12 other nations will add over one million consumers in 2024, the WDL report says, but this group too is dominated by Asia and includes Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey and Thailand. Others in the group are Egypt, Nigeria, Mexico, and Brazil. The USA is the only advanced economy in this group. For businesses, more consumers mean more spending. Consumer spending is set to increase by $2.3 trillion ($2017 PPP) in 2024. As the report puts it: “To put it into perspective, this is like adding another Germany to the consumer market or matching global military spending.”

Although the consumer class continues to expand globally, certain countries will see a decline due to aging populations and the long-term impact of lower fertility rates, notably Japan and several European countries. From 2022 to 2030, Japan is likely to lose 4 million consumers, while Italy’s and Germany’s consumer class will shrink as well. As the consumer class ages, the demand for health care services, leisure activities, and retirement-related offerings is expected to increase.