China’s test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean is a significant move that signals its growing military assertiveness in an already tense geopolitical landscape. This marks the first time since 1980 that Beijing has launched an ICBM into international waters, a development that has drawn global attention. Though China’s defence ministry described the test as part of routine annual training, experts and geopolitical analysts suggest the timing and nature of the launch are anything but routine. For decades, China’s ICBM tests have typically been confined to domestic ranges, such as the Taklamakan Desert.

The decision to fire a missile into the Pacific, reminiscent of its 1980 test, suggests that Beijing is attempting to send a broader message of deterrence and strategic reach. While China claims the launch was not aimed at any specific country, tensions in East Asia provide ample context for interpreting the missile test as a calculated signal to its neighbours and to the United States. Japan’s response to the test has been particularly telling. Despite China’s assertion that it notified relevant countries, Japan stated it had received no advance notice, fuelling apprehension about China’s increasing military unpredictability. Relations between China and Japan have been strained in recent months, exacerbated by Chinese spy planes breaching Japanese airspace and continuing disputes in the East China Sea.

Japan’s defence ministry made it clear that it would continue to monitor Chinese military movements closely, highlighting the growing concerns within the region. Beyond Japan, China’s relations with Taiwan and the Philippines have also become flashpoints. China’s aggressive tactics in the South China Sea and its repeated incursions into Taiwanese airspace are seen as attempts to assert dominance in disputed areas. The ICBM test comes amid reports of intensified missile drills by China around Taiwan, adding another layer to the grey zone tactics Beijing has been using to wear down the island’s defences. With each manoeuvre, China appears to be inching closer to normalising its presence in areas that are contested by its neighbours. From a broader perspective, the missile test could also be viewed as a signal to the United States. Relations between Washington and Beijing have been rocky, particularly after China suspended nuclear arms control talks in response to US arms sales to Taiwan. With the Pentagon’s latest reports indicating that China could double its nuclear warhead stockpile by 2030, Beijing seems intent on showcasing its growing capabilities. However, China’s nuclear arsenal, estimated at over 500 warheads, remains a fraction of the more than 5,000 possessed by both the US and Russia, leaving Beijing still trailing behind the world’s foremost nuclear powers. While Beijing may insist that the launch was a routine part of its annual exercises, the geopolitical undercurrents suggest a much more strategic motive ~ one aimed at asserting dominance in its immediate sphere of influence and signalling its rising global military ambitions.