String of Pearls, ‘naval forays’, ‘spy ships’, ‘debt trap’, ‘illegal and destructive fishing practices’ are some of the adverse expressions associated with China and have featured prominently in the Indian Ocean strategic and security discourse. China has pursued aggressive strategies to expand politicodiplomatic, economic and strategic influence among the Indian Ocean littorals and the regional seas.

The outcome has been maritime infrastructure to support the 21st century Maritime Silk Road under the Belt Road Initiative, naval bases/facilities for access by the Chinese Navy, and arms exports to several smaller countries in the region particularly in South Asia thereby disturbing regional peace and stability. Its distant water fishing fleet is also accused of engaging in Illegal Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing and has attracted concerns from several Indian Ocean countries.

At another level, the Chinese leadership has been pushing the Global Development Initiative (GDI), a development partnership agenda which according to the Chinese resonates with the United Nations-led 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (17 Goals). The GDI involves close to 200 projects and half of these have been completed. Over 100 countries and international organisations support the GDI, and nearly 70 countries have joined the Group of Friends of the GDI.

Encouraged by the popularity and support for the GDI, China hosted the first ever ‘China-Indian Ocean Region Development Cooperation Forum’ in November 2022 at Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province in southwest China. A year later, the second iteration of the Forum was held at the same destination. It focused on the ocean economy and was labelled ‘Shared Development: Theory and Practice from the Perspective of the Blue Economy’, similar to the first Forum.

It was attended by 19 Indian Ocean littoral countries including landlocked Afghanistan and three international organisations. It was organised by the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA). Luo Zhaohui, chairman of CIDCA, who is also China’s current Vice-Foreign Minister, has emphasised that “China will strengthen cooperation with countries in the Indian Ocean region to grow the blue economy, advance the implementation of the GDI (Global Development Initiative) in the region, embark on the path to shared development, accelerate cooperation and work together to build a maritime community with a shared future.”

China is promoting this idea of ‘shared future’ among the Indian Ocean countries and has drawn plans to set up a Blue Economy think tank network, establish a China-Indian Ocean Region marine disaster prevention and mitigation cooperation mechanism, and is even willing to provide fiscal, technological and training support. The cooperation also extends into the space domain and the China-Africa satellite remotesensing application is being conceptualized to enhance optimal utilization of sea based goods and services across various sectors. There are at least two important reasons which encourage China to push the development agenda. First, Beijing believes that ‘China-Indian Ocean Region Development Cooperation Forum’ can dispel fears about China’s strategic ambitions in the region and assure Indian Ocean countries that it is committed to their economic growth.

Importantly, China should be seen and accepted as a trusted development partner. It is true that China has both the technical capabilities and the much needed financial support to deliver high quality infrastructure. The national marine gross domestic product (2022) exceeds 9 trillion Yuan (US$1.25 trillion) and covers multiple ocean related goods and services ranging from shipping, shipbuilding, fisheries, non-living sea based resources, etc.

It merits mention that seven of the world’s top 10 busiest ports are in China, and sea based trade is a significant contributor to the country’s GDP. According to Sea Freight Transport Market Analysis, the maritime industry in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 3 per cent during 2023- 2028. However, behind these impressive indicators are numerous opacities as well as predatory practices that have undermined China’s benevolent intentions. Of particular concern is the ‘debt trap’ which has been the bane of some of the countries.

For instance, the Sri Lankan government was left with little choice but to lease Hambantota port to China for 99 years which not only impacted national pride, but led to a severe economic crisis with domestic political fallout. Second, there is a belief that the Chinese proposal is aimed at countering India’s Indo Pacific Ocean’s Imitative (IPOI) which comprises of seven pillars: (a) Maritime Security; (b) Maritime Ecology; (c) Maritime Resources; (d) Capacity Building and Resource Sharing; (e) Disaster Risk Reduction and Management; (f) Science, Technology and Academic Cooperation; and (g) Trade, Connectivity and Maritime Transport.

Under the IPOI, India has created a sense of community and several partnerships are mushrooming in the Indo Pacific region. New Delhi is encouraging other countries as well as groupings such as the ASEAN to join the IPOI as also lead some thematic areas under the Initiative in diverse areas spanning security, safety, resource development, science and technology, resilient infrastructure and marine environment-ecology.

The Indian political and diplomatic establishment has not missed the opportunity to convey New Delhi’s concerns of the growing Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean region. The Indian naval leadership has perhaps been the most vocal about the Chinese naval presence and flagged these at multilateral forums, and regional dialogues.

The strategic-academic community has joined the chorus and has been churning out policy briefs, academic papers, media commentary, etc. highlighting aggressive Chinese posturing in the Indian Ocean Be that as it may, the ‘China-Indian Ocean Region Development Cooperation Forum’ should not be seen as a standalone Chinese initiative aimed at countering India’s IPOI; instead it dovetails into the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), an inter-governmental organisation aimed at strengthening regional cooperation and sustainable development within the Indian Ocean region.

This 23- member grouping of which India is an important member along with 11 Dialogue Partners including China, has been spearheading Blue Economy initiatives including setting up of an IORA Working Group on the Blue Economy ( WGBE). The IORA can potentially emerge as a common platform for both India and China by delivering sustainable ocean development.

(The writer is Emeritus Professor of Research, SoA Center for Integrated Maritime Studies and Research (SOACIMSR), Siksha ‘O’ Anusandhan University, Bhubaneswar, India.)