The Camp David Accord of 1978 was a diplomatic coup for President Jimmy Carter. It was an accord that brought open hostilities between Israel and Egypt to an end and brought peace to the Sinai Peninsula.

Though President Sadat of Egypt had to pay for the accord with his life, it was an unprecedented moment in West Asia when a major Arab country concluded a pact with the Jewish State. It was also an exhibition of American diplomatic heft, a stroke of politics of optics where Muslim and Jewish states could be brought to the negotiation table. One assumption of world power is the belief that mediation would be welcomed by parties engaged in disputes to break the stalemate as well as find lasting solutions.

Camp David is an example that brings currency to the idea that a powerful mediator can possibly bring seemingly antagonistic parties together and alter the tone of international relations. It also emphasizes psychological acceptance of the greater power by other nations. It is an announcement of the superpower on the global stage. Though US superiority could be contested even then, Egypt and Israel did not accept the terms of the agreement easily and were forced into the accord. What perhaps cannot be denied is America’s ability to project itself as an accepted power of global consequence.

Recently, China sought to enact its own Camp David moment through a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Saudi Arabia is the leading Sunni country and Iran is an undisputed Shia leader. For decades these countries have been at loggerheads with differences stemming from their alternate Islamic belief systems and competitive bids to be undisputed leader of the Islamic world. The deal between the two would be a milestone if it enables the two warring countries to better manage their differences though permanent solutions are nowhere in sight.

If this happens, then there is an outside chance to ring in peace across the MENA region with direct implications for the Yemen war that has been simmering for years now. On the other hand, the USA’s bid to broker a diplomatic deal between the Saudis and Israel has not worked till now.

The failure may be attributed to chilly relations between Washington DC and Riyadh since a Democratic White House under President Joe Biden took charge. Also, Saudi Arabia seems to have played the China card deftly to counterbalance the US, its long standing ally. Given the changing global power equations, countries seem to be playing one power against the other to secure their respective interests. In this melee, China has upped the diplomatic ante. By leaving East Asian shores and engaging with West Asia, China seems to be testing the waters.

The Saudi Arabia-Iran deal may be an opportunity for China to attempt shifting its perception more as a deal maker rather than being seen as a global encroacher. However, there are limits to Chinese capacities to act as a credible global negotiator of the first resort. Since 2013, under President Xi there is a sense of urgency in the Chinese set up to project itself as an acceptable global power.

However, turning into a global power may not be easy for China and it may have to turn into a ‘magnanimous player’ rather than limiting itself to self-interest. Increased Chinese assertiveness and aggression coupled with ambition is the phenomenon which has taken the western world off-guard. Wolf Warrior diplomacy coupled with expansionist military posturing on the borders, both territorial and maritime, demonstrates Beijing’s intentions visà-vis its much sought after branding of a ‘peaceful negotiator’.

The ‘image makeover bid’ of China should be seen against its recent diplomatic standoff whereby it weaponized its economic power to coerce other countries. As a result of this, nations are looking at diversification of Supply Chains, Friendshoring, Near-shoring and China plus One as the strategies to hedge against Chinese coercion. Such coercive tactics have visibly dented Chinese credibility harming its global power aspirations. For long, West Asia, especially Saudi Arabia, was seen as a close US ally. Geographical location of Israel along with its security challenge and the need for petroleum products had necessitated good relations between the Saudis and the West.

From the Saudi perspective also, allowing China to broker a deal with Iran may tantamount to ‘testing waters’ with the dragon state, at the same time signaling to the USA the diversification of its interests. Given their inherent limitations, the Saudi-Iran agreement may not translate into a Camp David moment as the deal may not translate into gains for either side. Resumption of diplomatic relations between the two has been put on a tentative timeline which only suggests that there is tiptoeing around the idea of lasting peace between leading Shia and Sunni countries.

The acceptance of Chinese mediation has not convinced them to shed their differences unlike the accord between Israel and Egypt. At the same time, the world has clearly moved away from the cold war mentality of a bipolar world order. Each country has its calculations in place instead of blind camp following.

For example, Saudi Arabia has accepted Chinese mediation because of its stressed relations with the USA in the aftermath of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder and pricing of petroleum products in the wake of the Ukraine crisis. Similarly crippling sanctions placed by the USA under the Trump regime have pushed Iran into a tight corner with an acute economic impact felt across the country forcing it to reconsider its friends and foes.

Both are recalibrating their interests in the fast-evolving international relations arena. China and Russia, it is argued, are actively enlisting anti-USA countries as friends. Apart from Iran, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia among others are to be brought into orbit. Will China manage to create one such group in the near future where the world order is altered?

What would be Russia’s standing given that its diplomatic legacy has cleared the ground for China in mediation? In this transition, India is uniquely placed by pursuing an independent calibrated stand on various international issues including Ukraine. She has maintained strategic maneuvering space based on its core interests.

Evolution of Indian foreign policy in the last decade has shed India’s ideological baggage of the bygone era and brought some of its own interests to the fore. As the situation evolves in West Asia post the Saudi-Iran deal, India will have to keep a hawk’s eye on relations with both these countries. One big option for India may be to evolve into a sharp power from limiting itself to being a soft power.

(The writer is a contributing fellow with a nonpartisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies based in New Delhi.)