There are at least two critical facets of the National People’s Congress in China, one that has profound international implications and the other relating to defence spending for the world’s largest army, indeed the pivot of governance. The Great Hall of the People almost echoed the warning sounded by Prime Minister Li Keqiang, specifically that the world is entering a phase of political and economic upheaval in the context of the “spectre of Donald Trump”. Li has taken the opportunity afforded by the NPC to spell out China’s stand towards post-transition America, the first country to transmit a robust response to the alarums and excursions in Washington. In his presentation at the Tiananmen Square auditorium, Li sought to contrast China with Trump’s increasingly “inward-looking America” with a succinct summing up of geopolitics post the US Election 2016. He has couched his address to the 3000 delegates with the warning that “both the deglobalisation trend and protectionism are growing”. Not wholly unrelated to the Prime Minister’s ringing of the alarm bell in international relations was the rather unusual development at NPC ~ military spending for 2017 has been kept under wraps despite the promise of transparency. Even Xinhua, the state news agency, has not furnished the figures. Despite the initial announcement that defence expenditure would be pegged at 7 per cent ~ slightly lower than last year’s ~ the actual spending target was not included in the country’s budget that was released at the opening of the congress on Sunday. The official statement, if slightly dodgy on the face of it, is significant in the context of the changing foreign policy paradigm ~ “We will support efforts to deepen the reform of national defence and armed forces, commensurate with China’s international standing and are suited to our national security.” The oblique reference to the South China Sea and the possible change in US geostrategy is fairly obvious.

In contrast, the Prime Minister was explicit on the economic impact of the Trump transition. “There are many uncertainties about the direction of the major economic policies and their spillover effects, and the factors that could cause instability and uncertainty are visibly increasing,” Li warned in an indirect reference to Trump’s election. The US President, who has described China as an “enemy” of the United States, has repeatedly threatened to “play hardball with Beijing” over trade, a sort of muscle-flexing that has raised  fears of a potentially destablising trade war between the world’s two largest economies. 

The subtext of Li’s address is unmistakable ~ China will play a pivotal role on such issues as trade and climate… regardless of the perceptions of Donald Trump. The National People’s Congress marks the beginning of a crucial year in Chinese politics not least because President Xi Jinping, who assumed power in 2012, is approaching the midpoint of his decade-long term.