China’s next generation of leaders is in the spotlight in the run-up to the forthcoming 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). President Xi Jinping, while he still has a firm grip on the levers of power in Beijing, is now pushing 70. Though he is expected to be around for a while yet, and his hand-picked supporters in senior positions in the party and government are in pole position to take over when the time comes, the path to success of the movers and shakers from the 1970s generation in China’s provincial and national leadership provides useful insights into the changing nature and priorities of the CPC. Cheng Li, China expert and Director of the John L. Thorton Centre, Brookings Institution, in an incisive and ongoing multi-part commentary on the emerging leadership in China, makes the point that the party brass is au courant that it needs to recruit new blood ~ especially individuals with the administrative experience and skill sets to address emerging domestic and international economic challenges. The career patterns of newly promoted young leaders, therefore, Mr Li’s latest essay asserts, are the key to understanding how Beijing sees the future. 

Of the 108 highest-ranking leaders born in the 1970s, 86 are serving as vice-governors and/or members of a provincial party standing committee. On the surface, this would appear to be in line with the well-established pattern that provincial administrative experience is the preferred stepping-stone to the national leadership of the CCP. But a more granular examination of the professional specialisations of these 1970s generation leaders brings out the fact that 46 out of 86 ~ or more than half ~ have advanced their careers by climbing up the ladder in industrial enterprises or financial institutions rather than in local administration. In fact, says Mr Li, most of them were only very recently appointed to provincial leadership positions. Prior to that, they had usually spent over two decades working as business executives in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) or state banks. So, China’s next-generation leaders currently serving as members of CCP standing committees in the provinces more often than not have cross-region and cross-sector experience. Many of them have held leadership positions in SOEs. 

Advertisement

These leaders are seen as bulwarks against over- done localism; they have little or no stake in the political bureaucracies which have their own set of interests at national, regional, and local levels. Additionally, the 1970s generation leaders have acquired specialised technical experience in SOEs, which would presumably enable them to better implement policies aimed at stimulating local economies. A detailed examination of the factors that have historically contributed to the rise of business executives in the CCP leadership would make for a fascinating ~ and scary, given its roots in an unalloyed elitism albeit of the vanguard kind ~ study. But that is for elsewhere. Suffice it to say that this is a development which is likely to have a profound impact on how China manages domestic issues and engages with the world for decades to come.