The release of the Karnataka caste census has shifted the state’s political terrain, triggering reactions that stretch far beyond its borders. By revealing that Scheduled Castes (SCs), Scheduled Tribes (STs), and Muslims together form over 50 per cent of the state’s population, the report challenges long-held assumptions about social hierarchies ~ and with it, the distribution of power and policy. At the centre of this maelstrom is Congress Chief Minister Siddaramaiah.
A long-time advocate of social justice and a leader who has built his politics around the welfare of backward classes, he now finds himself navigating a treacherous path. While the release of the report aligns with his ideological commitment to equity, it also risks alienating politically powerful communities like the Lingayats and Vokkaligas, who now find themselves statistically diminished.
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The report, based on a 2015 survey initiated during Mr Siddaramaiah’s previous term, claims that SCs form 19.5 per cent, Muslims 16 per cent, and STs 7 percent of Karnataka’s population. Lingayats and Vokkaligas ~ historically considered dominant ~ stand at 13 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. These numbers challenge the very foundation of how political and administrative representation has been shaped in the state. The Congress, currently in power, is attempting to use the data to strengthen its pitch as the party of the marginalised. But this move comes with risks. The Vokkaligas, who have traditionally leaned towards the Janata Dal (Secular), and the Lingayats, a crucial vote bank for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), may interpret the report as a threat to their standing. BJP leaders have already accused the Congress of trying to divide society for political gains, while JD(S) has raised questions about the census’s methodology.
The real test lies in whether political parties can rise above electoral arithmetic to use the data for genuine policy reform, or whether it will merely sharpen caste-based polarisation. For Siddaramaiah, the bind is clear: acknowledge the data and push for a restructured reservation framework ~ which could invite political backlash from dominant communities ~ or delay action and face accusations of abandoning the cause of backward classes, especially the numerically significant Kuruba community to which he belongs. At the national level, this has triggered fresh demands for a nationwide caste census.
The Congress has endorsed this call, while the BJP-led central government has so far resisted it, wary of opening a Pandora’s box of competing claims that could disrupt its broad-based Hindutva coalition. The Karnataka caste census is more than just a dataset ~ it is a mirror held up to India’s social structure. Whether it leads to a fairer redistribution of opportunity or becomes a tool of political brinkmanship depends on how leaders like Mr Siddaramaiah choose to wield it. The challenge is not just electoral but ethical: can data-driven governance coexist with the compulsions of identity politics?
