It is an interesting parallel. In 1948, writes American political commentator and academic William A. Galston, US President Harry Truman was on the ropes. He was personally unpopular and faced breakaway candidates to his left (former Vice President Henry Wallace), and to his right (Strom Thurmond).

Although Truman lost 2.4 per cent of the popular vote and 39 electoral votes to Thurmond and another 2.4 per cent of the vote to Wallace, he managed to get re-elected by beating his Republican rival Thomas Dewey by 49.6 to 45.1 per cent (of the popular vote).

The theory is that the 2024 US presidential poll could be a rerun of 1948 albeit with a different ending. As in 1948, an unpopular incumbent Democratic president may well face Democratic defections to his left and his right. A leading Black public intellectual, Mr Cornel West, will be filling Henry Wallace’s slot as the presidential nominee of the Green Party. To President Joe Biden’s right, Larry Hogan, the anti-Trump Republican governor of Maryland and Joe Manchin, the moderate Democratic senator from West Virginia, are being spoken of as frontrunners on a “bipartisan” ticket with Arizona’s independent senator Kyrsten Sinema also in the mix.

This is bad news for Mr Biden, and throws cold water on the optimism that was beginning to emerge among Democrats after recent opinion polls which had him beating his likely Republican rival for president Mr Donald J. Trump narrowly in a head-to-head contest. For Mr West ~ the same surveys reported ~ would receive up to 4 per cent of the vote in a three-way race and that would ensure a Trump win. Mr West has particularly strong support among the Black community, young people, and voters with graduate degrees; all groups that have traditionally been overwhelmingly Democrat voters. Some in the Biden administration argue that these potential losses indicated by opinion polls could be offset by the entry of a centrist, independent candidate who would take votes away from Mr Trump.

Unfortunately for them, however, opinion polls project that even if a fourth candidate is in the fray, it would hurt President Biden more than Mr Trump. Echelon Insights, Data for Progress, and other leading polling agencies are unanimous in their findings ~ in anything more than a two-way race, Mr Biden would find it very tough to get reelected. It is, of course, still early in the presidential race. But there appears no issue that the increasingly frail Mr Biden can conjure up to even enthuse, forget excite, the country. Yes, the horror among a large section of the American electorate at the prospect of the return of Mr Trump is still palpable, but a campaign premised largely if not wholly on negativity hasn’t ever cut it.