Tamil Nadu is boiling again in the post-Jayalalitha period. If the succession battle in the AIADMK is not settled soon, the fight between the two contesting candidates for the chief minister’s post may shift to the streets as it happened in 1987 after the demise of AIADMK supremo MG Ramachandran. Already the horse-trading has begun and MLAs are being kept in camps in luxury resorts.

Things were going smoothly for Sasikala Natarajan, the close aide of J. Jayalalitha, as the party seemed to be united in choosing her as the successor. After proposing her name for the party chief’s post as well as the chief minister’s job, the present chief minister O Pannerselvam, has suddenly revolted and staked his claim holding that he was coerced into submitting his resignation by Sasikala.

Why is Sasikala in a hurry to take over and why is Pannerselvam revolting against her leadership? It is indeed like a film script as Sasikala has no qualification to succeed Jayalalitha except that she had been

a companion, close aide, confidante, backroom operator and surrogate sister (as Jayalalaithaa called her), and many party MLAs owed their tickets to her.

Soon after Jaya’s demise in December Pannerselvam was appointed as the chief minister. He must have deluded himself into thinking that power might be shared between him and Sasikala when she became the General Secretary. When he saw that Sasikala was eying his chair, Pannerselvam woke up and revolted against her. His plus point was that he had been chosen by Jayalalithaa herself twice when she had to step down briefly in 2001 and 2014. He was made chief minister for the third time after her demise. Moreover, he has developed a working relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in these two months and it is said that the Centre prefers him to Sasikala.

He had done well in handling some crisis situations like dealing with the Jallikattu agitation last month when youth had come to the streets demanding lifting of the ban. He also sorted out the water issue with neighbouring Andhra Pradesh by meeting chief minister N.Chandrababu Naidu. His response to the recent oil spill was also prompt. With all this he had endeared himself to the people of Tamil Nadu in the past two months.

On the other hand, Sasikala was seen as power hungry as she did not waste any time to take over the party as well as the government. Had she waited until she had fought an election and then claimed the chief minister’s post, it would have been different. Besides, she is perceived as a manipulator and there are public apprehensions that her family nicknamed as the “Mannargudi mafia” might grab the party and the government. Above all, even the BJP as well as the opposition parties in Tamil Nadu would rather have Pannerselvam as chief minister than Sasikala. However, Sasikala claims she has support of MLAs.

In such circumstances, the AIADMK is going for a split as it did in the aftermath of MGR’s death in 1987. Then it was Janaki Ramachandran, wife of MGR, who took over as chief minister pushed by senior party leaders like R.M.Veerappan. Jayalalitha by that time had proved her crowd-pulling and vote-catching capacity and Janaki, whose government fell in 24 days, was no match to her.

In the case of Sasikala, Jayalalitha herself never promoted her politically or gave her a position in the party or government. Emulating her mentor MGR, she did not name her political heir. Perhaps like MGR she also wanted the senior leaders to fight it out. Moreover the Tamil Nadu polity has fractured further since 1987 with more caste based and identity based parties springing up in the past two decades. In any case, Sasikala or for that matter even Pannerselvam will be no match to Jayalalitha’s stature.

With the Governor dilly-dallying about the succession, one thing is certain. There is bound to be instability for the next few days because of the bitterness in both camps. This was exactly what happened in 1987. With the AIADMK having a safe majority the Governor cannot even recommend President’s rule unless the law and order situation worsens.

While Raj Bhavan holds the key, Tamil Nadu is witnessing political instability which is affecting governance. Whether the Governor allows Pannerselvam to continue or installs Sasikal who has the numbers, the crisis will continue for some time.

The Governor has been criticized for not taking an early decision. In view of the unprecedented situation, it is clear that by way of abundant caution Governor Vidyasagar Rao, who is holding additional charge of Tamil Nadu, will not act in haste. He would rather wait for the Supreme Court verdict in the Disproportionate Assets case against Sasikala which is expected next week. This cautious approach is being supported by legal experts who feel that should the judgement go against Sasikala, it would create a needless crisis.