If there is one ‘bloc’ that the Israel-Palestine war has completely discredited, internally and externally, it is the Arab Sheikhdoms and their overentitled and inefficacious monarchies. As concerns on the horrors of Gaza Strip mount, Arab Street is distraught with the pusillanimous and meek expression of its princelings who meekly profess support for the Palestinian cause but refuse to go beyond meaningless platitudes. As the Palestinian death count spirals beyond reason, the Arab leadership has yet again shamed itself by remaining complicit with their telling silences.

If anything, the only modicum of counter to Israel’s disproportionate retaliation has come from the other sectarian ‘bloc’ led by Shiite Iran and its proxies in the region e.g., Houthis, Hezbollah etc., whereas some like the Jordanians actually shot down Iranian drones as they were headed towards Israel ~ this when the Jordanian Queen Rania, is of Palestinian origin (like 20 per cent of Jordan)! It is a two-faced and insincere approach of supposed support for the Palestinian cause that has routinely got exposed. Murmurs of secret parleys between Arab capitals and Tel Aviv have done the rounds for years ~ today, it is not even discreet anymore.

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While Egypt and Jordan had formalized relations with Israel long back, the recent ‘Abraham Accords’ have led to normalization of official relations with Israel by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. Others like Oman and more importantly, Saudi Arabia, have been having backchannel meetings and side deals with Israel to advance their bilateral agendas. The sudden eruption of the Israel-Palestine War (triggered by the dastardly 7 Oct 2023 Hamas attack) has optically pushed the formal rapprochement of the Arab world with Israel onto the backburner but the essential conduct of Arab capitals suggests clear riskaversion towards offending Israel.

It is a far cry from the earlier times when Palestine was an ‘Arab cause’, as today it seems that the Palestinians have been left to fend for themselves. Counterintuitively it is Western countries like Norway, Ireland and Spain that have shown some opposition by recognising the Palestine State to the discomfiture of the Israelis. The last time that the Arab Sheikdoms had caught cold feet and reacted jointly to selfishly save their own skins was during the ‘Arab Spring’. As the Arab streets were marching to slogans of ashsh’b yurid isqat an-nizam (literally, the people want to bring down the regime) and many Arab regimes did topple e.g., Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen the Arab princelings quickly suppressed the popular uprisings and insistences towards more democracy. Basically, the restive youth were wanting reforms, democratic rights and ‘true faith’, which essentially spelled doom for the illiberal and undemocratic Sheikdoms that refused to share or transfer power to others.

Many disowned the hardline factions like the Muslim Brotherhood and its ideological offspring, as a virtual cleansing to root out the religioextremist factions gathered steam. Today, it is the fear of guaranteed reprisals by Israel (as conducted on Yemen and Iranian elements) that frightens the Sheikdoms towards a virtual freeze and inaction on Palestine. But the history of the region is instructive of the imminent dangers that loom for leaders who surrender the ‘Arab Cause’ (foremost amongst them, Palestine) vis-à-vis Israel. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat was assassinated by disgruntled officers of his Egyptian Army who believed that Sadat had abandoned the cause of Palestine by currying favour with the Israelis (Camp Da vid Accords).

The assassin, Second Lieutenant Khalid Al-Islambuli, is still regarded as a hero on Arab streets with his name triggering many symbolic continuations. Almost 14 years after assassinating Sadat, Islambuli’s younger bro ther nearly assassinated Sadat’s successor, Hosni Mubarak in a daring attack in Addis Ababa. An obscure organisation called ‘The al-Islambuli Brigades of al-Qaeda’ claimed responsibility for an attempted assassination on Pakistan’s Shaukat Aziz. And of course, Iran has gone from releasing commemorative stamps to naming roads after Islambuli who is regarded as the hero who stood up against normalising relations with Israel at the cost of Palestine.

Peace making on Palestine is fraught with risks on all sides, including the Israeli side. Israeli Prime Minister Yitzak Rabin paid for making peace and committing to a ‘Two-State Solution’ on Palestine with his own life, getting assassinated by a radical Jew. Today, Saudi Arabia’s heir apparent Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS) has voiced dangers to his life for remaining invested with Israel (despite the mayhem in Gaza Strip) on its work-in-progress Israel-Saudi Peace Deal. MBS has invoked the Anwar Sadat case to insist on a semblance of a Palestine State to avoid the same fate. He alluded to the Arab fury towards Tel Aviv that can trigger lone wolves or radicalized groups to attack the Arab leadership, and the same is not unfathomable. While such bilateral deals e.g. Israel-Egypt earlier, or Israel-Saudi Arabia now, carry many reciprocal benefits for the countries involved, they are also tantamount to reneging and abandoning many other historical causes that are still important to a vast section of Arab citizenry.

While Iran has been threatening to open the battle front against Israel, such a situation could lead to an even more awkward situation for Arab capitals as they will have to choose a side. They will struggle to side with the Iranians given the sectarian dimension but the siding with the Israelis could be far worse and devastating in the eyes of their own citizenry. Even continuing silence or purported neutrality would not be an option as Iranians would ostensibly be doing the needful for the Palestinians cause and not helping could be unforgivable. The best option would be to de escalate tensions between Tehran and Tel Aviv and avoid the full-fledged flare up.

The Arab leadership is looking increasingly weak, unreliable and insincere in the eyes of its ‘own’, a dangerous portent. Benjamin Netanyahu’s relentless bludgeoning of Gaza is not helping matters for the effectively unseen and unheard Arab Sheikdoms and it is a sort of chilling inaction that has invariably and historically led to devastating implosions and uprisings, within. Cold silence over Arab deserts looms and that has always been ominous

(The writer is Lt Gen PVSM, AVSM (Retd), and former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Puducherry)