The Congress teamed up with Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad in the Bihar assembly elections to defeat the BJP. In Uttar Pradesh, however, the alliance of the Congress with Akhilesh Yadav could not prevent a massive win by the BJP.

While the two results were very different, in both cases the Congress had to bear the adverse consequence of its base among people getting badly eroded due to the fact that an overwhelming majority of the seats were simply not contested by its candidates. When a majority of the seats are not even contested, the mobilisation capacity and organisational structure of a once dominant party of these states is further rusted and eroded.

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This lowers the morale of even old timers and loyalists. Several committed cadres find themselves ill at ease when they are asked to extend support to and seek votes for candidates of parties with whom they do not agree. These and related factors need to be taken into account while planning the election strategy of the Indian National Congress for 2019.

This is a critical time for the most prominent political party of India in historical terms which now has to adjust to its new role in opposition. Despite all its recent adversities, it remains by far the leading opposition party in terms of its nationwide presence. Even in the middle of a difficult and adverse phase, the Congress won the most number of seats in three out of five states in which elections were held recently. It is another matter that it could form government in only one out of these three states.

So clearly while the Congress has more than its share of problems all is not lost and a resurgence is still possible. For this efforts have to be made at several levels. One important aspect is to formulate a careful strategy regarding electoral alliances after consultations that involve not just leaders but also grassroots supporters.

One mistake which cost the Congress a lot in Uttar Pradesh was to enter into an alliance with the Samajwadi Party merely on the basis of talks at the top level without proper consultation at the grassroots level. The idea behind the alliance was not bad at all, as the prevailing circumstances of Uttar Pradesh demanded some sort of alliance to defeat the well-oiled, efficiently managed election machine of the BJP which was aiming aggressively at sweeping the election through any means.

The mistake Congress made was in reaching the agreement so late that the supporter base could not be taken into confidence and could not also convey the ground realities to the leadership.

The ground realities indicated that a late agreement would not result in conducive conditions that were needed for the supporters of the two parties to establish a genuine understanding with each other. The ground reality also indicated that some of the most powerful and resourceful leaders of the Samajwadi Party would not only hesitate to support the alliance but may even disrupt it.

The Congress cannot afford to go on repeating its mistakes particularly in such important states as Uttar Pradesh. Some leaders are now talking of organising a Bihar-like mahagathbandhan to defeat the BJP in Uttar Pradesh in the next Lok Sabha elections scheduled for 2019.

Even if such a broad alliance of the SP, the BSP and the Congress becomes possible in UP (this itself is very doubtful) this will leave only about 10 to 15 per cent seats for the Congress. After the debacle of the Congress in the 2017 assembly elections, any decision to contest a small number of seats will be nothing short of catastrophic. Contesting a few seats amounts to leaving the battle before the bugle has been sounded. So before talking of a mahagathbandhan in UP leaders should think of implications properly. Any attempt to defeat the BJP by liquidating itself can only be called foolhardy from a longer term perspective. The proper strategy for the Congress would be to announce that it will contest not less than 80 per cent of seats in all the states in the next Lok Sabha elections. This will help to mobilise party workers and supporters at least to some extent in important states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar where there is so much uncertainty that there is hardly any incentive for party leaders to prepare for Lok Sabha elections.

However any such determined decision to contest a majority of the seats in the next Lok Sabha election also implies that the Congress will be able to get only smaller parties as electoral allies. There is nothing unfortunate about this. This is the way it should be for a truly national political party. It should have only smaller allies who will be content with a few seats. This is the right time for such a firm decision to send a clear signal to party members and supporters.

However the party should maintain cordial relations with all opposition parties which will also be helpful for post election efforts to form a government.

The writer is a freelance journalist who has been involved with several social movements and initiatives.