The ruling NDA and the opposition UPA will hold politically significant meetings on July 18 – the UPA in Bangalore and the NDA in Delhi – with the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in mind. Both are trying to strengthen and expand their respective coalitions, looking for new allies and getting back the old ones. The two groups aim to convey their readiness for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections through a plan of action.

The BJP rules in ten states and with its partners in five. The Congress is ruling in four and with its partners in three. Other parties are the Aam Aadmi Party, the All India Trinamool Congress, the Biju Janata Dal, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the MNF, the BRS and the YSRCP. In about 180 seats, the regional parties are the primary challengers to the BJP. The Congress versus BJP would be in approximately 230+ seats. Bharat Rashtra Samiti, Biju Janata Dal, Andhra Pradesh’s YSRCP, Bahujan Samaj Party, and other smaller parties with pockets of influence and vote banks are neutral.

The Opposition is enthused after its successful first meeting in Patna last month in which 16 parties participated. The Bangalore meeting is meant to take it forward. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has invited 24 parties to the second two-day meeting on July 17- 18. Forging ties freshly with the UPA alliance are MDMK, KDMK, VCK, RSP, Forward Bloc, Muslim League, Kerala Congress (Joseph) and Kerala Congress (Mani). MDMK and KDMK were BJP allies earlier. Sonia Gandhi, the leader of the Congress Parliamentary Party, will be present at the meeting.

Though she has taken a back seat, this will be the first time she will be participating in this round of opposition unity meetings. The Opposition is already united in states like Maharashtra, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, and Jammu and Kashmir. They send a total of 148 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Other states where the Opposition is strong are West Bengal, where the TMC directly competes with the BJP. In Delhi, the AAP is a rival to the Congress, and in Kerala, the Left. In West Bengal, both the Left and Congress are competitors to TMC. A lot had happened politically since the Opposition’s first and second meetings.

The Nationalist Congress Party split this month. Eight NCP rebels, including Sharad Pawar’s close lieutenants Praful Patel and Chagan Bhujjbal, have also ditched the senior Pawar. Sharad Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar is now the new Deputy chief minister in the Shinde cabinet. Secondly, in West Bengal, Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee has won a massive victory in the recent Panchayat elections.

The main objective of the UPA is to create a welcoming atmosphere and promote positive relationships among opposing political parties. The motto is “hum saath saath hai,” meaning “We are together.” The Patna meeting has kept out irritants among the players, and they had decided to work on a broad plan. The critical question is whether Congress will accept the other players as equals and whether the others will accept the Congress.

After the Patna meeting, AAP declared that it would be difficult to attend the conference unless Congress “publicly denounces” the recent ordinance clipping the wings of its government in Delhi. The second priority is establishing a Common Minimum Programme.

The third is to agree on a convenor; the prime ministerial candidate will come later. The fourth is to deal with the apprehension that Prime Minister Modi might advance the Lok Sabha polls. Hence Opposition parties want the broadest possible consensus on various issues. BJP is eyeing NDA plus ahead of the 2024 general elections and a hat trick for Modi. A new and expanded BJP-led NDA will meet on July 18 in Delhi to discuss their plans for the 2024 polls. The BJP is eyeing a fifty per cent vote share with the new and old NDA members. The BJP lost four of its oldest allies: the Janata Dal (United), Akali Dal, Shivsena and JD(U).

Today, Telugu Desam and Akali Dal want to come back. Shiv Sena has split, and one faction will join the NDA. NDA has not met for more than a year. The BJP is seeking additional allies, even if they may be considered minor players. The new members that are expected to attend are: The Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party. The Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena Chirag Paswan, leader of the Lok Jan Shakti Party (RV) The former chief minister and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) leader Jiten Ram Manjhi and his son. The JD(S) from Karnataka could also join the NDA meeting.

Small minor players. There could be a delay in finalising the return of the TDP and the SAD. The BJP must nurse its alliances in Maharashtra, Haryana, Bihar, the northeastern states and the south, as partners feel neglected. It must also keep channels open with neutral parties like Biju Janata Dal and YSRCP. The purpose of the July 18 meeting is to signal that the NDA is active. It also wants to stop the spotlight being exclusively on the Bangalore meeting. The optics will play out to the fullest for both coalitions.

The challenge for the Opposition is to keep united and for the NDA to keep its members happy.