The political upheavals in Bangladesh have significant implications for India, both diplomatically and strategically. The sudden change in government has introduced uncertainties that could affect the long-standing friendly relations between the two nations. With Sheikh Hasina, a steadfast ally of India, ousted from power, New Delhi faces a complex challenge in navigating the evolving political landscape of its neighbour. Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of Bangladesh’s founding leader, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, has been a dominant figure in Bangladeshi politics. Her tenure as Prime Minister, spanning multiple terms since 1996, has been marked by strong bilateral relations with India.

Despite the rise of Hindutva forces in India, the friendship between the two nations remained robust, driven by mutual interests in areas such as energy, infrastructure, and security. Under Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh saw significant economic growth and development. Her policies focused on improving infrastructure, healthcare and energy sectors, which created numerous opportunities for cooperation with India. The two countries collaborated closely on counterterrorism efforts, sharing intelligence and conducting joint operations to combat extremist groups operating in the region. The sudden ouster of Sheikh Hasina has sent shockwaves through diplomatic corridors of New Delhi. The new government in Dhaka, expected to be heavily influenced by religious fundamentalists, poses a direct challenge to India’s strategic interests. With reports indicating that Islamist factions will play a significant role in the new administration, there are growing concerns about the potential rollback of the progress made in recent years. India’s Ministry of External Affairs has so far maintained a cautious stance, labelling the developments in Bangladesh as an internal matter.

However, the potential rise of religious extremism in Bangladesh could have far-reaching consequences for India. The stability of the region is at stake, with implications for counter-terrorism efforts, border secur ity, and economic cooperation. Critics argue that India missed an opportunity to intervene diplomatically during Sheikh Hasina’s political crisis. Despite the historical ties and strategic importance of Bangladesh, the NDA government chose a hands-off approach. This decision stands in stark contrast to the actions of other global powers like the United States, which openly cr iticized the electoral process in Bangladesh and supported opposition movements. The United States Ambassador to Bangladesh, Peter Hans, publicly questioned the transparency of the recent elections, adding international pressure on the Hasina administration.

In contrast, India’s silence has been perceived as a sign of diplomatic passivity, a significant departure from its proactive stance during past crises in Bangladesh. India’s role in the formation of Bangladesh is a testament to the deep-rooted ties between the two nations. During the 1971 Liberation War, India provided crucial military and humanitarian support that led to the creation of Bangladesh. This intervention cemented a bond that has persisted through various political regimes in both countries. Sheikh Hasina’s relationship with India was further strengthened after the tragic assassination of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, in 1975. India offered asylum to Hasina and her family, who were in Germany at the time of the coup.

She lived in Delhi’s Pandara Road until 1981, during which time she continued her political activities and maintained her ties with Indian leaders. This historical connection underscored the mutual trust and cooperation that characterized India-Bangladesh relations during Hasina’s tenure. The current political uncertainty in Bangladesh threatens to disrupt the economic cooperation that has flourished in recent years. Projects in energy, infrastructure, and healthcare, which were initiated under Hasina’s government, may face delays or cancellations. Indian companies that invested in these sectors are now in a state of limbo, awaiting clarity on the new government’s policies. Security is another major concern. The influence of religious fundamentalists in the new government could hinder the on-going counterterrorism efforts. Bangladesh has been a key partner in tackling extremist groups that pose a threat to regional stability.

A shift in the political landscape could embolden these groups, leading to an increase in cross-border terrorism and a deterioration of the security situation along the IndiaBangladesh border. Sheikh Hasina’s legacy is marked by her resilience and commitment to development and secularism. Despite facing multiple assassination attempts, political imprisonment, and criticism for her authoritarian tendencies, she remained a strong leader. Her government’s initiatives in providing asylum to Rohingya refugees, improving healthcare, and focusing on women’s empowerment earned her international recognition. However, her tenure was not without controversy. Accusations of electoral fraud, suppression of political opponents, and authoritarian practices drew criticism from various quarters.

The opposition leader, Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), was placed under house arrest, and there are over 400,000 cases filed against opposition party members. These actions have tainted Hasina’s democratic credentials, providing ammunition for her critics. As Bangladesh transitions to a new government, India must carefully navigate its diplomatic relationship with its neighbour. Engaging with the new administration will require a delicate balance of asserting India’s strategic interests while respecting Bangladesh’s sovereignty. India’s diplomatic strategy will need to be multifaceted, involving dialogue, economic incentives, and regional cooperation. Rebuilding trust and ensuring continuity in bilateral projects should be a priority. Strengthening people-to-people ties, promoting cultural exchanges, and enhancing trade relations can provide a stable foundation for future cooperation.

Additionally, India must be vigilant in addressing security concerns, ensuring that counter-terrorism efforts remain effective despite the political changes in Dhaka. The political upheaval in Bangladesh presents a significant diplomatic challenge for India. The ouster of Sheikh Hasina, a trusted ally, and the rise of religious fundamentalists in the new government could disrupt the progress made in bilateral relations. India’s cautious approach and historical ties with Bangladesh will be tested as it navigates this complex situation. The future of India-Bangladesh relations will depend on New Delhi’s ability to adapt its diplomatic strategy to the evolving political landscape, ensuring that mutual interests are safeguarded and regional stability is maintained.

(The writer is Associate Professor, Centre for South Asian Studies, School of International Studies & Social Sciences, Pondicherry Central University, India.)