The phone conversation between Presidents Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin has set the stage for a potential diplomatic breakthrough in the Ukraine war. President Trump’s announcement that negotiations would begin “immediately” marks a shift in Washington’s approach, prioritising direct talks with Moscow. However, while Ukraine is being kept in the loop ~ Mr Trump called President Volodymyr Zelenskky after his conversation with Mr Putin ~ the structure of these negotiations raises questions about the balance of power. One of the most notable developments is Mr Trump’s statement that Ukraine is unlikely to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato).

This aligns with the stance taken by his defense secretary at a Nato meet on Wednesday and represents a departure from previous US commitments. Ukraine has long sought Nato membership as a security guarantee, and its exclusion from the alliance would fulfil one of Moscow’s primary war aims. For Kyiv, this shift could feel like a diplomatic setback, even as the US remains engaged in talks about Ukraine’s future. Territorial integrity is another critical issue. Mr Trump suggested that Ukraine may not regain all of its pre-2014 borders but hinted that “some of that land will come back.” While this remains vague, it signals that Washington may be open to a negotiated settlement that falls short of Kyiv’s full demands. For Ukraine, which has maintained that any peace deal must include the restoration of all its occupied territories, this could be a difficult pill to swallow. Moscow, meanwhile, has ruled out any territorial concessions of its own, making the path to a settlement fraught with challenges. Despite concerns about how these negotiations will unfold, Ukraine is not being sidelined.

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Mr Trump’s call to President Zelenskky underscores that Washington still sees Kyiv as an active participant in shaping its own future. Moreover, Vice President J.D Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are set to meet Mr Zelenskky at a meet in Munich on the Ukraine war., This ensures that Ukraine’s leadership remains engaged in high-level discussions. However, the challenge for Kyiv will be to ensure that these talks do not lead to an outcome dictated primarily by the interests of the US and Russia. Mr Zelenskky’s warm response to Mr Trump’s call suggests that Ukraine is determined to stay engaged, despite concerns over potential compromises. Kyiv will likely push for stronger Western security guarantees, knowing that any deal perceived as a concession to Russia could weaken domestic and international support.

For now, the road ahead remains uncertain. If Mr Trump’s outreach to Mr Putin results in a sustainable ceasefire that protects Ukraine’s sovereignty, it could mark a turning point in the war. However, if the negotiations tilt too far in Moscow’s favour, Ukraine may find itself under pressure to accept compromises that weaken its long-term security. As diplomatic efforts accelerate, the world will be watching closely to see whether these talks bring a just peace ~ or simply a temporary pause in a protracted conflict.