These dying days of December are reflective and provide the leverage to reflect on what substantives have happened in different fields in 2023. At this transition, it is relevant to recall those events that have impacted the world in different ways. The same is true in the context of India’s north-eastern region. However, it is impossible to include the affairs of all spheres.

However, some events related to those aspects of the northeast persisted since the region emerged with independent India as a part of the new sovereign nation and an integral part of the world’s largest democracy. Certain areas in India provide the country with strategic leverage against her neighbours and other stakeholders in international politics. Besides India’s maritime dominance in substantial parts of the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the Arabian Sea, which cover India, the northeastern region that shares international land and river boundaries with several nations holds a key position in India’s strategic calculus and diplomatic roadmap.

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However, it is unfortunate that New Delhi does not provide the necessary importance to empower the region from a strategic, diplomatic, and security point of view, as is the case of the India-Pakistan border or those Indian states that share an international border with Pakistan. It is undeniable that India’s strategic and diplomatic policies are mainly Pakistan-centric. Considering the troubled past, nobody can ignore the importance of the Pakistan border.

But this does not ratify India, ignoring the significance of the north-east and the vulnerable chicken neck or Siliguri corridor that connects the north-east with mainland India. India can be more potent if the north-eastern region becomes strong as a solid strategic base. After all, India’s fragile stand in the north-east means keeping the doors open for the anti-India elements penetrating India and sabotaging her strategic and security interests. Undoubtedly, the government has taken the initiative to connect the missing dots.

However, what is the actual state of the north-east? How much does the region secure? What is the ground reality of those areas sharing international borders with different countries? How have India’s relations with the neighbouring countries of the eastern frontier? All these are essential parameters for judging India’s position in the north-eastern region. In light of these crucial interrogatives, an assessment can be made regarding the affairs in the north-eastern states in 2023. This bears special significance for framing policies in 2024 to complete the unaccomplished in the days ahead.

This year, the country witnessed yet another worst conflict in the northeastern region in the form of Manipur violence. Manipur has been the headline for the wrong reason throughout the year. However, the entire episode exposes one of the delicate issues of the north-eastern region in the form of violence and anarchy in Manipur. The Manipur violence brought to the fore the identity issue, or the apprehension of losing a distinctive identity. The issue of diverse identity affiliations is compassionate here, and any effort at policy initiation keeping aside the identity issue is bound to be counterproductive in the context of the northeastern states.

The region is the homeland of various communities defined by ethnic, linguistic, religious, and other identity affiliations. However, it would be wrong to perceive the identity issue of the northeast only as an internal issue. The issue has international implications. The unique demographic profiles of the north-eastern region and those of the frontier countries make the issue more complicated. Certain sections in the northeastern region are closely associated with the people of adjourning countries, particularly those of Myanmar. Nobody can break this fabric under the shade of nationalism.

Instead, issues in the north-eastern region can be better served by addressing their identity concerns with proper policy initiatives. However, this has been a significant challenge for India, both internally and externally. Unfortunately, 2023 has witnessed utter mishandling of the identity issue of the north-eastern people. Manipur reacted violently.

But this issue is relevant for the entire region and has been the bone of contention among different north-eastern states. Similarly, the identity-related issue will keep states like Nagaland, Mizoram, and Meghalaya on the boil in 2023. The ethnic clashes between Meiteis and Kukis have impacted the interests of other north-eastern states. Nagaland raised the issue of Naga-inhabited areas of Manipur strongly. The insurgent group of Nagaland, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IsakMuivah faction), raised the issue of the naga-inhabited regions in Manipur.

Also, the demand for a Greater Tipraland has gained momentum in Tripura through Tipra Motha, better known as the Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance, which will be autonomous in 2023. The ethnic conflict in Manipur has impacted the tripartite peace talks among the Centre, the Meghalaya government, and the separatist organization Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) this year. Chakma and Hajong community issues came to the forefront in Arunachal Pradesh.

Similarly, all efforts by the chief ministers of the northeastern states to resolve the vexed inter-state border disputes have licked dust in 2023. All these express the volatility that persists in the northeastern region. In 2023, a report once again confirmed that north-eastern states are at the top of India’s list of tobacco-consuming states. As per 2023 data, Mizoram tops the list, followed by Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura, and Assam.

Not only in tobacco but also in drug consumption and running illegal drug rackets, north-eastern states are leading in the country. Drug and other unlawful trafficking between the north-east and the neighbouring countries has been a significant concern for decades. The drug rackets run a parallel economy, using the northeast as a transit point. Similarly, the Siliguri Corridor, comprising the districts of North Bengal and its proximity to Assam, Bangladesh, and Bhutan, continued to provide drug-racket access connectivity with the rackets operational in mainland India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan in 2023.

Myanmar, which borders 1,643 kilometres of northeast India, is part of the Golden Triangle (comprising Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos). These countries manufacture nearly 68 per cent of the world’s illegal opium. Because of the proximity between the north-east and Myanmar, the region remains an important transit point for drug trafficking between Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. At the end of 2023, the situation will remain more volatile in the northeast, a major cause of concern for the country.

The north-east has been the laboratory for experimenting with the antiIndia agendas of China, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Bhutan for decades. The situation became more volatile in 2023. The Chinese aggression continues almost with the same intensity across the India-China border in Arunachal Pradesh. China enhanced the process of influencing the youth community of Arunachal Pradesh by providing a 5-G internet connection. Chinese logistics are more accomplished at the Arunachal border.

The year 2023 witnessed an enhanced effort by the Chinese cyber-cell to run its propaganda machinery against India through social media. Although India has banned many Chinese software and mobile applications, the situation is entirely different across the remote border region. The flow of Chinese products through Myanmar, in the case of Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland, and through its other proxies like Nepal and Bhutan bordering North Bengal and eastern Bihar, stayed the same in 2023. The 2023 Manipur violence has a direct connection with the illegal drug rackets operational in the region.

On the other hand, the present regime in Myanmar displayed more aggressiveness by causing military escalation in some parts of the northeast this year. In January 2023, the Young Mizo Association (YMA), an influential civil society organisation of the state, claimed that the Myanmar army executed an aerial strike in Indian territory in Mizoram. The organisation also informed us that Myanmar took military action to dismantle the terror base of the Chin National Army (CNA), an insurgent outfit in Myanmar that has a base in Mizoram. The significant point is that Myanmar should have taken India into confidence before executing such an operation.

But Myanmar did not do so. On the other hand, as far as Bangladesh is concerned, a section is running an anti-India agenda openly, and the north-eastern states are its prime victims. Despite the increase of radical elements in Bangladesh, India seems to be taking too many things for granted in the case of Bangladesh. The so-called Islamic leaders of Bangladesh remain busy spreading anti-India venom and impacting the people living across the India-Bangladesh border. This became more evident during the religious gatherings attended by the so-called fanatic Islamic leaders in Bangladesh in 2023.

These days, Bangladesh is on the boil because of political clashes between the ruling party and the opposition for the upcoming election scheduled for January 2024. India is concerned about whether Sheikh Hasina will retain power in Bangladesh for another term. All these are essential points for north-eastern India to strengthen the region and defeat the sinister design of the adjourning countries against India.

At a time when Indian diplomacy is claimed to harness more extensive ground in international politics, the developments in the north-eastern region do not reflect that much positive image. It is time for New Delhi and the governments of various north-eastern states to thoughtfully ponder the situation in the north-east and the people living here. Will things change in 2024? Let us hope so.

(The writer is an independent contributor)