The social fabric of Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat in Uttar Pradesh is such that here the alliance of Muslims with Yadavs has become a winning combination here.

Using the Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) combination, 17 out of 20 elections have been won and this is proof enough that everything pales in comparison to this chemistry.

In this election too , a similar tried and tested formula is being used, with two Yadavs fighting out in the May 25 polling while Dalits will play a crucial role in the poll results.

Sitting MP and BJP candidate, Bhojpuri actor Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirahua is pitted against SP’s Dharmendra Yadav, cousin of Samajwadi Party Chief Akhilesh Yadav while the BSP has fielded Mashood Ahmed, to make it a triangular contest.There are 9 candidates in the fray for the Azamgarh seat.

On one hand, this UP district is famous for renowned litterateurs like Ayodhya Singh Upadhyay, Mahapandit Rahul Sanskrityan and Kaifi Azmi but on the other hand, it is infamous for allegedly being a nursery for terrorists and youths of the district who reportedly were involved in Batala House crime case in Delhi.

But now, progress, development and peace is seen in Azamgarh.

The affection of the Muslim community towards the Mulayam family has made the election battle interesting. BJP’s Dinesh Lal Yadav alias Nirahua, had defeated SP’s Dharmendra Yadav in the last by-election.

The SP has an upper hand after Shah Alam alias Guddu Jamali joined the party. Guddu is also a factor in Azamgarh elections because in 2014, he had secured more than 2.66 lakh votes by fighting against Mulayam Singh Yadav. Guddu’s claim of completely transferring his vote bank to the SP can play a spoiler for the BJP’s math. All eyes are also on BSP’s Mashood Ahmed to see how much support he can muster from Muslims along with BSP’s vote bank.

Guddu Jamali had secured more than 2.66 lakh votes on BSP ticket in the by-election held in 2022 after SP chief Akhilesh Yadav entered the assembly. This is the reason why BJP’s Dinesh Lal Yadav Nirahua won against SP’s Dharmendra Yadav in the 2022 bypolls by a margin of just 8,000 votes despite getting 3.13 lakh votes less than in the 2019 elections.

In 2019 general elections, Nirahua had bagged around 3.62 lakh votes while SP-BSP’s joint candidate Akhilesh Yadav had won more than 6.21 lakh votes. This time, since Guddu Jamali has got down from the elephant (BSP symbol) and boarded the bicycle (SP election symbol), there is a lot of speculation on whether opposition votes will be divided.

After the delimitation of 2009, now Azamgarh parliamentary constituency consists of Azamgarh Sadar, Gopalpur, Sagdi, Mubarakpur, Mehnagar assembly segments. SP has MLAs from all these five assembly constituencies.

Despite the Yogi-Modi wave, the M-Y chemistry won the SP all ten seats in the district in the 2022 assembly elections. There are two Lok Sabha constituencies in the district – one Azamgarh and the other Lalganj.

In a flashback, the Congress, which had won this seat five times till 1984, could not make a comeback after the beginning of ‘Mandal-Kamandal’ politics. By registering victory in 1989, the BSP changed the political mood here. Except for the victory of Janata Dal in the 1991 elections, BSP and SP have been winning in the four elections held from 1996 to 2004. The BJP broke this winning streak in 2009.

In 2014, Mulayam Singh Yadav again won the seat for SP. In 2019, his son Akhilesh Yadav won with a huge vote share of 60.4 per cent. However, after he vacated the seat, SP could not repeat its charisma and lost the seat. Dinesh Yadav Nirahua hoisted the saffron flag by defeating SP’s Dharmendra Yadav.

Unemployment is considered the biggest issue in Azamgarh in this election. As far as Azamgarh is concerned, both Akhilesh and Nirahua have worked for development in the district.

The caste equations here include 24 per cent dalits, 20 per cent Yadavs and 12 per cent Muslims.

Candidate profiles:
Dineshlal Yadav Nirahua of BJP is contesting for the third consecutive time from the seat. Nirahua, who gained recognition as a Bhojpuri actor and singer, was elected MP for the first time by defeating former MP and Mulayam Singh’s nephew Dharmendra Yadav in the by-election in 2022. Dinesh Lal, a native of Tandwa village of Ghazipur district, was a superstar of Bhojpuri film industry before coming into politics.

SP founder Late Mulayam Singh Yadav’s younger brother Abhayram Yadav son Dharmendra Yadav is contesting from Azamgarh seat for the second time. For the first time, he had to face defeat in the 2022 by-election. Dharmendra Yadav was also active in student politics while studying at Allahabad University. He became MP from Mainpuri for the first time in 2004. After this, he was MP from Badaun seat in 2009 and 2014 but lost in 2019.

BSP candidate Mashhood Ahmed is a resident of Paharpur in the city and has been associated with politics since his student days. He was engaged in student politics for a long time during his Shilli College days. After this, he joined the National Democratic Party and then the Congress. Just a few days ago, he had joined the BSP with his wife Shavis Ansari.