With the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls now entering the last leg of its seven-phase elections, the mood within the BJP circles here and in Uttar Pradesh seem to be mildly optimistic as well as skeptical.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is hoping to capture around 180 seats in the 403-member UP assembly but will still have to bank on Independents to reach the magic figure of a simple majority, 202 seats. Indications from the ground zero point to the party's "good showing" in the third, fourth and fifth phases of the polls as against "below-expectation" to "poor showing" in the first and second phases of the polls.

Advertisement

Party insiders told The Statesman here that notwithstanding the party's likely poor showing in the first and second phases, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's magic seems to have worked largely to the extent of it being able to consolidate a section of Dalits such as Passi, known to have a strong aversion to Jatavs (Mayawati’s support base), and other backward castes in favour of the BJP.

The BJP is also not expecting much from the 6th round. But it feels a strong fight between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in this round will help its prospects, BJP insiders added.

There are both positive and negative factors that have worked to the BJP’s advantage and disadvantage. While its optimism largely stems from positive factors and its skepticism from factors like "polls plans gone awry" in some cases to the lethargic BJP's traditional and upper caste voters, mainly women, shunning the polling station on the day of voting.

The BJP central leadership has been investing a lot of its energy and time on wooing Dalits mainly non-Jatavs ~ such as Passis and Mauryas ~ months ahead of the UP polls. Jatavs, who are considered a pillar of support for the BSP chief Mayawati, have remained loyal to their leader as usual.

"What the media in Delhi and people who did not go deeper into poll-bound territories actually missed out reporting or understanding is the BJP's ability to effect backwards and non-Jatav Dalits' consolidation. During this election Passi community shifted to the BJP. This is a new development in the UP politics, something that has happened only after the coming of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who neither belongs to any upper or forward caste," said sources close to the Sangh Parivar.

Another positive factor that is perceived to have worked to the advantage of the BJP's poll prospects has been the UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav's "Yadav-centric" developmental initiative during the last five years of his rule in the state. This has reportedly been done by appointing at least one top official at the district administration or police set-up from this community across the state.

All these factors have created a perceived "sense of isolation" and "anti-Yadav feeling" among the Muslims and non-Yadav OBCs towards the ruling family and their Samajwadi Party. As a result reports coming from the state indicate that Muslims might have voted more in favour of the BSP this time rather than the SP and that the non-Yadav OBCs and a section of Dalits might have voted for the BJP, sources claimed, adding that the BJP has also given more tickets to their representatives in this election.

The BJP is also weighing in negative factors that are likely to mar its prospects. The positive feedback at the ground level has given rise to strong expectations among the BJP leadership about the party’s chances. But the skeptics in the Sangh Parivar say that although there has been impressive gathering of BJP sympathisers at the party rallies and public meetings it is still doubtful whether they will have have actually voted for the party.

Unlike other parties which actually go to the houses of each Muslim, SC and Yadav families and pull them out of their houses and ask them to go to the polling booth and vote, BJP sympathisers are averse to any such tactics. It is not easy to get BJP supporters to the polling booth, especially the upper caste families let alone their women members, the sources said.