The Union Ministry of Education recently released a pre-draft of the National Curriculum Framework (NCF) for school education.

As this is a key document based on which new curriculum will get re-designed, it would make second hand books market redundant and result in significant volume delta for book publishers, broking firm Prabhudas Lilladher said in a report.

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Substantial yield advantage would also accrue as repricing at a higher level becomes easier post curriculum revamp.

“We believe policy change would result-in strong growth for book publishers over a period of 2-3 years, as substantial volume/price delta is in the offing. Post formal induction of NEP, the entire curriculum will get re-designed and new books will be published rendering the second hand books market completely redundant”, the report said.

“The last NCF revision happened in 2005 and back then a new syllabus was rolled out over a period of three years. Like last time, we believe, new NCF adoption this time will also be staggered. Revised NCF for K-2 was already announced in October-22 and recently released pre-draft indicates subsequent announcement for higher grades is around the corner. Thus, NCF revision benefits will not be short-lived and would benefit publishers for 2-3 years.

“As the entire curriculum will get re-designed and new books will be published after adoption of NEP, the second hand books market will become redundant. This will significantly aid volumes of state board publishers where usage of second hand supplementary books is substantially higher,” the report said.

S. Chand derives 50-55 per cent of revenue from CBSE board and 15-20 per cent of revenue through state board supplementary book publisher Chhaya Prakashani, where usage of second hand books is higher when compared with ICSE board.

In comparison, Navneet Education derives 87 per cent of its publishing revenue from supplementary books like workbooks, guides and 21-sets where usage of second hand books is high.

While volume delta is dependent on size of the second hand books market, we believe both the publishers will be able to exercise significant pricing power as 1) new set of books will not have any existing value benchmark 2) repricing becomes easier due to change in curriculum. Further, if small publishers are not able to comply with new NCF and publish books on time, it can also aid in increasing market share of larger players like NELI and S. Chand, the report said.