It is a renewed war of nerves on Kashmir with the NDA government at the Centre likely to further harden its stance in the wake of beheading of two Indian soldiers by Pakistani army men and killing of five policemen by Hizbul terrorists on Monday.

After the Narendra Modi government stated before the Supreme Court last week that there is no question of talking to separatists, it came under a barrage of attack from almost all the Valley groups. Even mainline political parties like the ruling PDP and the National Conference criticised the Centre’s pronouncement.

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Pakistan and its chosen Hizbul Mujahideen militants took no time to strike against India by their gruesome acts of beheading the slain soldiers’ bodies and attacking and killing five Kashmir police personnel. It was a double whammy for India as it was hosting Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on his two-day state visit when the attack took place.

Expectedly, India vowed a befitting response to Pakistan with Defence Minister Arun Jaitley stating that “the sacrifice of the two soldiers will not go in vain”. On the Valley front, the government can only be expected to be tougher in the prevailing atmosphere of violence and terror.

After the Kashmiri Hizbul commander Burhan Wani’s killing by security forces late last year resulted in continued convulsions in the Valley, the Centre waited patiently for normalcy to return. Instead of abating, however, militancy increased with Pakistan meddling in Kashmir by instigating the youth to revolt. The separatists Hurriyat added fuel to the fire by deploying young children, both boys and girls, to throw stones at the armed forces and other security personnel. Violence during the recent by-elections which resulted in the death of seven security personnel worsened the situation. Video clips of security personnel tying a Kashmiri youth to their jeep as a human shield or Kashmiri youth heckling and slapping armed Indian CRPF men on official duty went viral, creating a deep divide and anger on both sides.

Under these circumstances, the PDP-BJP ruling alliance is under severe strain. Some believe it may reach breaking point if the situation is not salvaged soon. The question is who will blink first. The PDP leadership wants the Modi government to begin talks with all stakeholders, including the Hurriyat and Pakistan. The Centre, on the other hand, is firm that it will not talk to separatists, or to Pakistan unless it stops its state-sponsored terror activities against India.

The NDA government believes that it has done everything at its command to improve the situation ~ from giving political power to people from the Valley (read PDP) to a Rs 80,000 crore economic package. It also tried to keep Pakistan in good humour by reaching out to its leadership in a spirit of friendship and cordiality. In return, India got Uri and Pathankot. The latest incident of beheading of two Indian soldiers may prove to be a tipping point.

What is causing serious concern to the government is that there is no let-up in violence resulting in loss of life among security forces as also civilians. The villain of the piece remains Pakistan which has been increasing its anti-India operations by infiltration attempts and ceasefire violations in LoC. According to official statistics, in 2014 Pakistan made 49 infiltration attempts which went up to 121 in 2015 and a whopping 371 in 2016. There were 93 ceasefire violations reported in 2012 going up to 99 in 2013; 153 in 2014; 152 in 2015 and as many as 228 in 2016.

Pakistan has already made over 60 ceasefire violations till mid-April this year. It often resorts to unprovoked firing to give cover to infiltrating militants from its territory. Security forces believe that the infiltration will only increase in the coming months when snow melts in the higher reaches in summer.

India, it is clear, will have to fight on two fronts ~ with Pakistan to guard the Line of Control from infiltration attempts, and separatists in the Valley who will spare no chance to queer the pitch for security forces. How the PDP-BJP partnership plays out in the coming days in these trying circumstances will also have an important bearing on the overall situation in Jammu and Kashmir.