As the Congress plots the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party’s ouster from power at the Centre, the Rahul Gandhi-led party can bank on Punjab getting most of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in the state in the 2019 general election.

Besides being in power under the strong leadership of Amarinder Singh, the Congress appears all set to make gains in 2019, thanks to the infighting in the two main Opposition parties – the Aam Aadmi Party (SAD) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD).

During the 2014 polls, the AAP drew a blank elsewhere in the country but managed to win four Lok Sabha seats in Punjab as voters in the agrarian state supported the promise of alternative politics by Arvind Kejriwal. But severe infighting in the Punjab unit has weakened AAP and now there is little hope of the much divided party repeating its 2014 performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

With 20 MLAs, AAP is the main Opposition party in the Punjab Assembly but the party has seen a sharp decline in its support base before and after the 2017 Assembly polls. The division in the party can be gauged from the fact that two of AAP’s four Lok Sabha members from Punjab ~ Dharamvira Gandhi and Harinder Singh Khalsa ~ were suspended from the primary membership of the party in 2015 for anti-party activities.

Gandhi, a cardiologist and social worker, represents Patiala constituency whereas Khalsa, a former diplomat, represents Fatehgarh Sahib constituency. The other two AAP lok Sabha members are comedian-turned-politician Bhagwant Mann (Sangrur) and former educationist Sadhu Singh (Faridkot).

Besides the two members of Parliament, former state unit chief Sucha Singh Chottepur had also formed Apna Punjab Party after being accused of corruption and was joined by several disgruntled AAP leaders in the outfit which failed to make an impact in 2017 Assembly polls.

Spelling further trouble, former leader of Opposition and Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) from Bholath, Sukhpal Singh Khaira along with Kharar MLA Kanwar Sandhu have been spearheading the rebellion against the AAP high command and demanded total autonomy for the Punjab unit.

Ending efforts for reconciliation with this rebel group, AAP has suspended Khaira and Sandhu from the party for anti-party activities but they continue to have support of five other AAP legislators and claim to be in talks with some other AAP MLAs in order to form a new group or alliance in the state.

The AAP’s Punjab unit had plunged into a crisis when the party leadership appointed Harpal Singh Cheema as the Leader of Opposition on 26 July, replacing Khaira. Its troubles deepened with the rebel group forming an ad hoc Political Affairs Committee (PAC) and named Khaira as the interim chief of the party’s state unit.

The situation is not any different in the SAD which is facing rebellion against Sukhbir Singh Badal with number of senior leaders resigning from the party questioning the leadership of party president (Sukhbir).

After Rajya Sabha member Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa’s resignation from all party posts, three other senior leaders including member of Parliament, Ranjit Singh Brahmpura, Sewa Singh Sekhwan and Ratan Singh Ajnala, raised questions on the way the party openly favoured pardon for Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh, who was later jailed for rape. The rebels also questioned the way Sukhbir Badal is running the party.

Amid a virtual revolt by a section of Taksali Akalis (old guard), Sukhbir Badal tried to control things by saying that the SAD was nobody’s personal fiefdom and he was ready to quit his post the moment the party so wishes. “Let me tell you one thing, the SAD has given me an opportunity to serve. If they will say you leave and let someone else take over, I am ready,” he said. But there is no sign of the Akali Dal’s troubles coming to an end anytime soon despite the former chief minister Parkash Singh Badal becoming active again to appease the disgruntled leaders.

This infighting in the main Opposition parties is good news for the Chief Minister Amarinder Singh and the Congress ahead of the Parliamentary elections. Punjab Congress president Sunil Jakhar has said that there is keenness among party leaders to contest the Parliamentary elections that is reflected in the interest shown by so many ticket seekers.

Despite efforts for formation of a Third Front by bringing together disgruntled AAP and SAD leaders along with smaller parties like the Lok Insaaf Party, there is little hope if such a formation coming to reality. With all the above factors set to cause division of Opposition votes in Punjab, it is advantage the ruling Congress in the state.