With the announcement of the by-election schedule to fill seven vacancies in the Rajasthan Assembly, the Congress along with its INDIA allies, and the BJP, on its own, are gearing up for a “war” mode to defend their respective strongholds.

The seven seats going to polls on November 13 are Jhunjhunu, Ramgarh, Dausa (ST), Deoli-Uniara, Khimsar, Salumbar (ST), and Chorasi (ST).

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While five seats (Jhunjhunu, Dausa (ST), Deoli-Uniara, Khimsar, and Chorasi (ST)) were vacated by legislators following their election to the Lok Sabha in the 2024 general elections, the deaths of Zuber Khan (Congress) and Amrit Meena (BJP) necessitated by-polls in Ramgarh and Salumbar (ST).

Of these, the opposition Congress and its I.N.D.I.A. allies had won six seats in the 2023 assembly elections, while BJP’s Amrit Meena secured Salumbar seat.

Consequently, the Congress and its allies have a larger stake in these by-elections compared to the BJP. However, the Congress and its allies appear confident about their candidates’ prospects, though the names have not yet been announced.

As per prevailing perceptions in Jhunjhunu, the Congress seems quite comfortable, based on the past records and voting behavior of the electorate. The seat was vacated by former Minister Brijendra Singh Ola following his election to the Lok Sabha from the Jhunjhunu constituency.

This assembly segment in Shekhawati region has traditionally been a stronghold for the Congress, with the party and the Ola family having significant influence in most elections. Since 1952, Congress nominees held the seat until 1990.

Sheesh Ram Ola, a party stalwart, won it three times, while his son Brijendra has held it four times. In the upcoming by-elections, the Congress is likely to field either Ola’s son or his wife, Rajbala Ola.

Similarly, Ramgarh in Alwar district remained a Congress bastion until 1980. However, in recent years, it has produced mixed results, with the seat often being contested between the Congress and the BJP.

The late MLA Zuber Khan, whose death led to the by-election, won the seat in 1990, 1993, and 2023. His wife, Shafia Zuber Khan, also won in 2018. She or another family member is likely to be the party’s nominee this time, leveraging the sympathy factor.

In contrast, the Dausa (ST) seat, vacated by Murari Meena of the Congress, did not favor the party until 1985. However, given Meena’s influence and support base, the party remains a strong contender.

An influential figure, Dr Kirodi Lal Meena, could also impact the outcome. Despite being a senior member of Bhajan Lal Sharma’s cabinet, his relationship with the ruling party has been unpredictable. The by-election outcome will depend on how the BJP handles ticket allocation, as Dr Meena reportedly seeks the ticket for his younger brother or another relative.

Deoli-Uniara, formed in 2008, has been held twice by Harish Meena, while his fellow party member Ramnarayan Meena and a BJP nominee have each won once.

The Khimsar seat, in the Jat-dominated Nagaur district, has been held by Hanuman Beniwal (RLP) in all four elections since 2008. Beniwal, elected to the Lok Sabha from Nagaur in 2019 and again in 2024, necessitated by-elections for Khimsar twice. In 2019, Beniwal fielded his brother Narain, who won. The RLP, an ally of the INDIA bloc, is expected to field another candidate favored by Beniwal, with a predictable outcome.

Salumbar (ST) in Udaipur division is the only seat held by the BJP in 2023. The late MLA Amrit Meena won three out of four elections since the seat’s formation in 2008, making it a critical seat the ruling party cannot afford to lose.

The Chorasi (ST) seat in Dungarpur district has seen a decline in support for both the BJP and the Congress due to the emergence of the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP), which has gained significant influence in the tribal belt of Banswara and Dungarpur districts.

The seat was vacated by Rajkumar Roat (BTP) following his election to the Lok Sabha. The political atmosphere remains favorable for the BTP, now an ally of the INDIA bloc.

According to the Election Commission’s schedule, nominations for the seven assembly segments will be accepted between October 18 and 25, scrutiny will occur on October 28, and withdrawals can be made until October 30. Polling is set for November 13, and vote counting will take place on November 23.