The post-poll scenario will be far from a simple dichotomy of winners and losers. It is a complex and intriguing political landscape, with outcomes yet to unfold. The post-election scenario is not just about the expected outcomes. It’s about the potential for unexpected alliances, dramatic shifts in power dynamics, and the emergence of new political forces. A potential political realignment could reshape the postelection political landscape. The BJP’s victory in the election is more or less certain. Two plausible scenarios are being debated, each with its implications.

One scenario envisions a landslide victory for the BJP, even crossing the 400 mark. The other suggests a more modest outcome with fewer seats. A landslide victory for the BJP could potentially lead to realigning political forces. If the party emerges as the largest, albeit with fewer seats than in the 2019 poll, it will form the government with the help of other parties. This expectation is primarily based on the unwavering faith of BJP supporters in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership. The strategic decisions made by the Congress party, such as reducing the number of contested constituencies, highlight the depth and complexity of Indian politics.

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Each move is a calculated step towards a larger goal. The INDIA alliance, a key player in Indian politics, could shrink if the BJP returns to power. Some opposition parties, like the Trinamool Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab, have opted to refrain from engaging in partnerships, weakening the Congress’s position. The BJP’s victory could lead to re-evaluating the INDIA alliance’s strategy, with some partners choosing to align with the BJP and others seeking new partnerships or independent paths. If the BJP secures more seats, smaller parties could make a beeline to join the alliance. This significant development, driven by the smaller parties’ desire to align with the winning side to secure their political interests, could shape the post-poll scenario. Some want to oppose Modi, while others see alliances as failed attempts. Some will support the BJP with the best chance of sharing power. However, the remaining parties and leaders would challenge the NDA. Secondly, even if the BJP gets fewer seats, the party could secure the support of other parties willing to align with the winner.

This could also lead to a dismantling of the newly formed INDIA coalition. This alliance has many fair-weather friends who can ally with any party, considering only their self-interest. The BJP’s ability to secure more seats or gain the support of other parties could significantly impact the political landscape, potentially leading to a realignment of political forces. However, it is important to note that these are potential scenarios and not confirmed outcomes. The future of the NDA coalition, a key player in Indian politics, is always subject to change. Various factors, including the election outcome, can influence it. The NDA could emerge as the majority, leading to the formation of the government.

Alternatively, it could fall short and seek support from other parties to form a coalition government. It will try to gain support from parties led by influential leaders like Naveen Patnaik, Jagan Mohan Reddy, K Chandrashekhar Rao, Mayawati, and others. Modi praises Naveen Patnaik, which is an indication of this. The Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP had been with the BJP earlier, and it will not be a surprise if they move to the NDA, in such a situation. Delhi Chief Minister Kejriwal is ambitious and eyeing the prime ministership, but he will remain in opposition. Kejriwal has predicted that if Modi wins again on June 4, he will jail Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar, Rahul Gandhi, and Mallikarjun Kharge. Kejriwal would also be sent back to jail. The BJP has also experienced the departure of essential allies like SAD, Shiv Sena, JD(U), etc. Now, JD (U) and the TDP have come back.

In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK, a former NDA ally, may rejoin the NDA based on its performance after the polls. Even the ruling DMK is considering a post-poll scenario. The party recognises the need for a strong working relationship with the NDA and PM Modi. These potential alliances and power dynamics shifts could significantly impact the post-poll landscape. The June 4 election results will show how politics will shape the INDIA alliance, splintering or strengthening it. They will also indicate whether the BJP will become more overbearing with a hat trick under its belt