According to an opinion poll conducted by Matrize survey agency and broadcast by Times Now on Friday, no single party is currently poised to secure an outright majority in Haryana, Jharkhand, or Maharashtra if Assembly elections were held today. The projection for Maharashtra, which has a total of 288 Assembly seats, indicates that the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition holds a slight edge, although the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is expected to trail closely behind.

The survey projections for Maharashtra indicate that the BJP is expected to secure between 95 and 105 seats. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena is projected to win 19 to 24 seats, while the Ajit Pawar-led NCP is anticipated to gain 7 to 12 seats.

The Congress is expected to bag 42 to 47 seats, and the Shiv Sena-UBT (Uddhav Thackeray faction) is likely to win 26 to 31 seats.

The Sharad Pawar-led NCP-SP is expected to secure 23 to 28 seats, with other parties and candidates projected to get 11 to 16 seats.

In terms of vote share, the Matrize survey shows the following percentages — BJP at 25.8 per cent, Shiv Sena at 14.2, Ajit Pawar-led NCP at 5.2, Congress at 18.6, Shiv Sena-UBT at 17.6, Sharad Pawar-led NCP at 6.2, and others at 12.4 per cent.

Eknath Shinde leads the list of preferred candidates for Chief Minister in Maharashtra, according to the opinion poll.

The survey reveals that 27 per cent of respondents favour Shinde over other candidates.

Uddhav Thackeray is supported by 23 per cent of those surveyed, followed by Devendra Fadnavis with 21 per cent and Sharad Pawar with 9 per cent.

The remaining 20 per cent of respondents prefer other candidates.

In Haryana, where there are 90 assembly seats, the election is expected to be tightly contested.

The BJP-led coalition is projected to win between 37 and 42 seats, while the Congress is anticipated to secure 33 to 38 seats. The JJP is forecast to obtain 3 to 8 seats, and other parties are expected to win 7 to 12 seats.

No single party is predicted to achieve a majority on its own, but the BJP appears to have a slight advantage.

In Jharkhand, with a total of 81 Assembly seats, the seat distribution is projected as follows: JMM is expected to win 19 to 24 seats, Congress 7 to 12 seats, BJP 38 to 43 seats, AJSUP 2 to 7 seats, and others 3 to 8 seats.

In this tribal state, the BJP is nearing the majority mark of 42 seats.

According to the opinion poll, Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini’s performance as CM has been categorised as – Very Good: 40 per cent; Average: 21 per cent; Not Good: 24 per cent and Can’t Say: 15 per cent.

The vote share in Haryana is likely to – BJP+: 35.2 per cent; INC: 31.6 per cent; JJP: 12.4 per cent and Others: 20.8 per cent.

The opinion poll on the impact of the Jat issue has found the following data.

The question was “Will the Jat vs Non-Jat issue have any electoral impact?” Results are – Yes: 38 per cent; No: 43 per cent and Can’t Say: 19 per cent.

Surprisingly, 56 per cent of the surveyed voters do not support Rahul Gandhi’s call to abolish the Agnipath Scheme. The survey results are – Yes: 29 per cent; No: 56 per cent and Can’t Say: 15 per cent.

On the question of whether pre-poll announcement of CM face will benefit Congress and allies in Haryana? The result was – Negative Impact: 35 per cent; Positive Impact: 30 per cent; No Impact: 24 per cent and Can’t say: 11 per cent.

Another notable finding for Jharkhand is the popularity of potential Chief Ministerial candidates. Babulal Marandi is the most favoured choice with 41 per cent, followed by CM Hemant Soren at 32 per cent. Arjun Munda is supported by 9 per cent, Champai Soren by 5 per cent, and others account for 13 per cent.