The BJP-backed Mahayuti and the Congress-backed opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) have both claimed they will easily win enough assembly seats to form the next Maharashtra government.

However, it is already a well-known secret that Nationalist Congress Party (NCP-Sharad Pawar) Maharashtra state president Jayant Patil and Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat have already begun contacting many independent candidates, just in case the MVA falls short of a majority. In fact, party workers themselves have admitted it informally.

Earlier on Thursday, when Devendra Fadnavis was asked if the BJP is in contact with any independent candidates, or potential opposition candidates, he claimed, “We will easily form the Maharashtra government, we have not contacted anyone.” Yet, according to party circles, there has been an “understanding” with some independents even before the Maharashtra elections began.

Going strictly by figures alone, a record number of 2,087 of the 4,136 candidates who have contested the 288 constituencies across Maharashtra in the 2024 assembly elections are independents.

In the 2019 Maharashtra state assembly elections, 1,400 independent candidates contested, of which 13 candidates, including Prakash Awade, Manjula Gavit, Rajendra Raut, and Ravi Rana, won.

This time, the increase in the number of independent candidates raised concerns over their potential impact on the outcome despite their lower chances of securing seats individually.

In fact, the sheer number of independent candidates had sparked off concerns that some of them were ‘dummies’, fielded to reduce the margins of mainstream parties by splitting votes or confusing voters, as happened in the recent Haryana polls.

Though many independents are unlikely to win in the Maharashtra elections, their very presence, especially in key constituencies, could influence outcomes.

Typically, independent candidates are well known as “horses” who can be “traded”, and they are more than willing to sell themselves to the highest bidders and often play the role of “kingmakers”.

According to a party spokesperson, some independents such as Hina Gavit, Sameer Bhujbal, and Ranjit Shinde (the son of present MLA Baban Shinde), are likely to hamper the electoral prospects of major party candidates. If a substantial number of independents manage to siphon off votes from major parties, this could influence the results of the Maharashtra assembly elections.