Despite a perceived anti-incumbency factor in Madhya Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party seems poised to return to power to the State where it ruled for 20 years, barring a short span in 2018 when chief minister Kamal Nath-led Congress party was in power.

According to trends posted by the Election Commission of India at 1 pm on Sunday from the counting of votes of the Assembly polls held on November 17, the BJP was leading on 161 seats, the Congress on 66 seats and Bahujan Samaj Party on two seat while the Bharat Adivasi Party had bagged one seat.

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Elections to the 230-seat Madhya Pradesh Assembly was a fight between the BJP and the Congress, which was toppled from power in 2020 with help from Jyotiraditya Scindia who defected to BJP from the Congress.

Chauhan is eyeing a possible fourth term as chief minister, and a celebratory mood prevailed at the party office in state capital Bhopal. Union Minister Scindia who joined in the celebrations who said the welfare schemes of Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led government in the state contributed to the success of the BJP in the state.

“We knew that as far as Madhya Pradesh is concerned, given the public welfare schemes of our double engine government – people’s blessings will be with us… I am confident that their blessings will be with the BJP and we will form the government with absolute majority,” Scindia told reporters.

The Union minister also took a jibe at the Congress party as he said, “Congress was preparing ladoos and congratulatory posters were put up. While we were doing our work quietly.”

“…Ladli Behna scheme is a game-changer and the full credit for it goes to Shivraj Singh Chouhan,” Scindia said.

Without putting any name on front for the CM face, the BJP fought the poll under a largely collective leadership while the Congress had projected former Chief Minister Kamal Nath as its chief ministerial face.

To combat perceived anti-incumbency against Chouhan, the BJP pulled into the fray several high-profile leaders and MPs including union ministers Narendra Singh Tomar and Prahlad Patel, but the party might find it hard to dismiss the claim of incumbent four-time Chief Minister Chouhan, who led the battle from the front, particularly on the strength of his welfare schemes for women.

Chouhan relied heavily on schemes like the ‘Ladli Behna Yojana’ under which Rs 1250 is transferred monthly to eligible women from poor families in the state.

Tomar’s experience and stature are key in this regard. He started his political career as the president of the BJYM’s Gwalior wing in 1980 and won his first MLA ticket in 1998.

He was also the state president of the BJP for two terms, in 2006 and 2012. He has been an MP from Morena three times and held crucial portfolios such as Steel, Mines, Labour, Employment, Panchayati Raj, Rural Development, Drinking Water and Sanitation, Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, and Food Processing at the Centre.

Meanwhile, there is buzz about five-time MP and Union Minister Prahlad Patel considered close to both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah and who contested from Narsinghpur to be a strong contender for the Chief Minister’s post owing to his organisational skills.

Patel too started out as a youth activist and became the district president of the BJYM in 1982. He became the general secretary of the organisation in 1986. He was elected to the Lok Sabha for the first time in 1989 from Balaghat and won the seat again in 1996 and 1999.

In 2003, Patel emerged as a confidant of Uma Bharti after she uprooted the decade-old Digvijaya Singh-led Congress government. Soon, Patel moved to Delhi, heading the Coal Ministry in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government.

When Uma Bharti mounted a rebellion against Chouhan after he was picked for the CM post in 2005, Patel walked out with her as she formed the Bharatiya Janshakti Party. But in 2009, he returned to the BJP, and in 2014, he won his fourth term as MP from Damoh. He retained the seat in 2019, with a margin of 3 lakh votes.