Andhra Pradesh, which goes to polls on Sunday in the fourth phase, is witnessing a neck-and-neck fight between the ruling YSRCP and the NDA alliance, comprising the BJP, Jana Sena and the TDP, with both sides evenly poised.

Apart from the political parties, it is also a battle of strategists, with political consultant-turned-politician Prashant Kishor, who had steered YS Jagan Mohan Reddy to victory in 2019, throwing his lot with TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu this time. I-PAC, founded by Kishor, is guiding the YSRCP campaign.

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Others whose fates are also at stake, include YS Sharmila, who is making her electoral debut in the Kadapa LS seat as a Congress candidate, as well as Jana Sena chief Pawan Kalyan and Nara Lokesh of TDP, fighting in Pithapuram and Mangalagiri, respectively. They are keen to hit the winning note after their disastrous losses in the last election.

Although many consider the outcome might be the same as in 2014 when the three parties had formed an alliance and emerged triumphant, this time both the alliance and the YSRCP face certain new challenges.

While the YSRCP seems to enjoy a bit of advantage in North Andhra and Rayalaseema, the Coastal Andhra, comprising Krishna, Guntur, and East and West Godavari districts, is predominantly under the influence of the NDA. The YSRCP seems to be on strong ground given its steadfast vote bank of SC/ST and minorities, comprising Muslims and Christians, who have benefited from his welfare schemes.

Moreover, in order to curb the anti-incumbency factor, YSRCP chief Jagan Mohan Reddy has taken recourse to social engineering while selecting candidates mostly from Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and SCs and STs. However, the middle class, government employees, and teachers were unhappy with the YSRCP and were likely to vote for the NDA.

While the affluent Kamma caste favours the NDA, the Kapus are split between the alliance and the YSRCP despite the presence of Pawan Kalyan in the NDA.

The alliance also has some challenges on the ground, namely vote transfer. This is particularly true for TDP cadres in constituencies where BJP candidates have been fielded. However, leaders of the three parties have been quite keen to ensure that the message percolates down to the grassroots level.

The two rivals are also ensuring mobilisation of voters and election management which are key to winning polls. The YSRCP has an advantage because of its village volunteer system which it had set up after coming to power to ensure the delivery of its welfare schemes at the doorsteps of beneficiaries.

The village volunteers were rounding up voters, particularly out of state ones, and mobilising them. However, Andhra Pradesh is notorious for bribing voters with liquor and cash that will also decide the outcome of the polls. Residents of Sattenapally in Palnadu district held protests demanding the cash they were promised by a leader of a political party had not been delivered.