The gloves are off and battle lines are drawn for yet another high-voltage political face-off among three political fronts – CPI-M-led ruling Left Democratic Front(LDF), Congress-led Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) and BJP-led National Democratic Alliance( NDA), in Kerala where polling for 20 Lok Sabha would be held on April 26.

Of the 20 seats in the state, the UDF got 19 in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the remaining one had gone to the CPI-M kitty. Both the UDF and the LDF have announced candidates for all seats, while the BJP-led NDA is yet to announce candidates for four seats.

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The UDF has fielded all its sitting MPs, except for Thrissur, where K Muraleedharan is contesting, instead of sitting MP TN Prathapan . On the other hand, the LDF has for the first time, a sitting minister, K Radhakrishnan is fielded in a Lok Sabha poll, along with five ex-ministers.

The BJP list includes two union ministers,Rajeev Chandrasekhar and V Muraleedharan, fighting in Thiruvananthapuram and Attingal respectively. The BJP has fielded Congress leader AK Antony’s son Anil Antony in Pathanamthitta.

Congress leaders exuded confidence that the UDF will bag all 20 seats. Prior to notification of the CAA rules, corruption, monthly pay-off allegation against chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s daughter Veena Vijayan, non-payment welfare pensions Padmaja Venugopal’s enrty into the BJP were the main campaign issues in the state. Now, the CAA has come as the major campaign issue, surpassing all other issues.

After the Centre’s notification of the CAA rules, the ruling CPM-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF Opposition Congress began to concentrate in the battle for Muslim votes, projecting themselves as they are in the forefront in the fight against the Sangh Parivar.

The Congress and the CPM seemed to vie with each other to tap into the growing fear that the CAA was patently ‘anti-Muslim’.They are competing each other in wooing the Muslims stating that “we will protect your interest at any cost.”

In 2019, the CPI-M used the CAA to woo Muslims and some Muslin organisations have lauded the Left government for its firm stand against the CAA.

The Congress is now using the Centre’s CAA notification as an opportunity to regain the lost confidence of the Muslim community, while the CPI-M is making CAA a campaign issue for a further consolidation of Muslim votes in its favour.

It may be noted in the 2021 Assembly polls, there was a Muslim consolidation in favour of the CPM-led LDF

Winning back the trust of Muslims is a must for the Congress for repeating its 2019 performance. The Congress is now intervening in the CAA issue more aggressively to assuage the wounded Muslim feelings.

The CPI-M has planned a rally in Kozhikode on March 22 under the banner of the Constitution Protection Samithi. Chief Minister Vijayan will address the rally and similar public events will then be held in other parts of Muslim-dominated north Kerala in the coming weeks.

The CPI-M gambit appears to be that placing the CAA as the major campaign issue may help it deflect the Congress’s attacks over governance against it, and counter anti-incumbency.

The CAA notification has come as a blessing in disguise for the ruling CPI-M which has been facing massive anti-incumbency. The LDF government has been facing the wrath of people as the government failed to pay the social security pension for the last six months, salary of government employees has been delayed, DA instalments due to the government employees have not been paid.

Subsidised grocery items are not being distributed through the supply company outlets. All these issues have now gone on the back burner as the Centre decided to implement the CAA and both the Opposition front and ruling front concentrates their attention on the CAA.

Citing the trend of Congress leaders flocking to BJP, the CPI-M is alleging that a vote for Congress would ultimately turn out be a vote for BJP. The Congress is countering this to the exodus to the BJP from the CPI-M in West Bengal and Tripura. The Congress is also succeeded in creating a narrative that there is BJP-CPI-M nexus in Kerala.

The Congress leader VD Satheesan, the other day, said the Lavlin case against Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan, is pending before the Supreme Court. It was adjourned for 38 timews as the CBI was not ready to appear before the court. In many cases, the CBI and ED are not ready to question Kerala CM. All these points to the BJP-CPI-M nexus, he alleged.

VD Satheesan has further alleged that the business relationship between Union Minister Rajeev Chandrsekhar and LDF convener EP Jayarajan has turned into a CPM-BJP relationship.

The Congress leaders expect that the narrative that there is a BJP–CPI-M nexus in Kerala may help them to bring back the Muslim votes which went to the CPI-M –led LDF in the 2021 Assembly polls, to the UDF kitty.

The BJP expects that the party can win two or three Lok Sabha seats in Kerala this time and the party candidates are succeeded in in making the contest in Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur,Attingal, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta and Palakkad a three cornered fight.

The massive attendance in Prime Minister Modi’s rallies and roadshows are giving high expectations to the BJP leaders in Kerala.

However, the Central probe agencies going soft on the cases against the Chief Minister’s family, CPM leaders and the unprecedented adjournment of Lavlin case involving CM Vijayan and others have not gone down well with the party rank and file.