Maharashtra’s leader of Opposition (LoP) in the state legislative assembly and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) MLA Ajit Pawar apparently followed in the footsteps of Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde (Shiv Sena) and joined the state’s ruling dispensation while claiming, support of more than 2/3 NCP’s MLAs, the party is with him.

Shinde too, it may be recalled, had split the undivided Shiv Sena party led by then Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray and broken out with 40 MLAs just over a year back. Shinde then formed a government with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) while also staking claim as the real Shiv Sena party.

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After a protracted battle over eight months, the Election Commission of India (ECI) allotted the official party name of Shiv Sena and symbol (bow and arrow) to Shinde’s faction in February 2023 and Shinde’s first-ever stint as Chief Minister has since completed one year at the helm of Maharashtra.

Ajit Pawar has now broken ranks with his uncle and NCP president Sharad Pawar, and joined the coalition government led by Shinde that now boasts of two deputy chief ministers, a first in the state.

Even as Ajit Pawar is being credited with the political gambit that played out on Sunday, the BJP was preparing for this political eventuality a year ago.

“Even after the Shinde-led, BJP-backed government was sworn into power in 2022 the possibility of the disqualification of 16 MLAs of the breakaway faction, including Shinde himself, necessitated not only a plan B but also a plan C,” a senior BJP leader told The Statesman.

The entire operation involving the spiriting away of Shinde and 15 Shiv Sena MLAs to Gujarat (Surat) first and then to Assam (Guwahati) was planned and detailed quite meticulously.  “Maharashtra deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis was informed only after the Shinde faction had reached Surat last year,” the BJP leader further noted.

There was also a plan B and plan C in place even as Shinde joined hands with the BJP. “Plan B was to hold mid-term elections if the Supreme Court were to disqualify the Shinde-led political formation. The BJP was clear it would only go to polls in Maharashtra as the ruling party. Simultaneously, the BJP was also working on plan C that came to fruition on Sunday when Ajit Pawar joined our coalition government,” the senior BJP leader said.

The BJP feels it is in a better position to face elections in Maharashtra now as the opposition voter base has been effectively marginalized and is in disarray. If elections are held now, the BJP will count on the Shiv Sena (led by CM Shinde) splitting the vote bank of the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (UBT) Shiv Sena while the Ajit Pawar led breakaway NCP faction would similarly, cut into the vote share of the faction led by his uncle Sharad Pawar particularly, in the party’s political bastion of western Maharashtra.

The BJP feels that two Shiv Sena factions and two NCP factions in the electoral fray will tilt the results in its favour in Maharashtra.

However, Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar was able to register a strong showing in the 2019 state assembly elections when 54 NCP MLAs got elected quite simply only a few months after a dismal performance by the party in the general elections.

Then, Pawar senior exploited the ED notice issued to him (although it was withdrawn) to drum up popular support for his party, even indulging in a rain dance of speeches across Maharashtra. Can he repeat his poll performance of 2019 again after his nephew split his party down the middle? Only time will tell.