Dhubri, a constituency in Assam situated near the Bangladesh border, will go to polls in the third phase of the ongoing general elections on May 7.

The constituency, with predominantly migrant Muslim population, will see a triangular contest.

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Traditionally held by perfume tycoon Badruddin Ajmal, the supremo of AIUDF, this time sees a challenging electoral landscape with Congress nominee Rakibul Hussain and NDA consensus candidate Zabed Islam from Asom Gana Parishad vying for the seat.

The spotlight falls on the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), a minority party formed to safeguard the rights of migrant Muslims, as it battles for its political survival against the determined efforts of the Congress to reclaim its erstwhile prominence.

Once a stronghold of Congress until the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the constituency has witnessed three consecutive victories for AIUDF’s Badruddin Ajmal since 2009.

AIUDF emerged swiftly on Assam’s political horizon following the abolition of the controversial Illegal Migrants Determination Tribunal Act of 1983 in 2005, tapping into the substantial migrant Muslim vote bank.

Its rise has also catalyzed the BJP’s growth on a polarized platform, as evident from the 2014 elections where BJP secured 7 seats while AIUDF claimed three.

With Muslims constituting approximately 34 per cent of the total population, AIUDF’s electoral success fractured Congress’s traditional Muslim vote base.

However, facing direct confrontation with AIUDF for the first time, Congress labels Ajmal, a prominent perfume entrepreneur with markets in Gulf countries, as the “B team” of BJP.

Political analysts speculate that AIUDF’s support among migrant Muslims is waning due to leadership dissonance and perceived failure in addressing concerns regarding the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and National Register of Citizens (NRC). This disillusionment could potentially redirect Muslim voters back to Congress.

For 68-year-old Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, the electoral outcome not only determines his political fate but also the future trajectory of his party.

Despite facing challenges, Ajmal holds certain advantages—he enjoys significant wealth and widespread recognition as a philanthropist, earning him the reputation of a savior among migrant Muslims during times of adversity, including the 1951 National Register of Citizens (NRC) update.

While Ajmal has comfortably clinched victory in past elections, Hussain poses a formidable challenge, particularly in parts of central Assam where he commands influence.

A victory for Hussain could signify Congress’s resurgence in Dhubri and neighboring districts, marking the initial steps toward reclaiming lost political ground.